Sam Avellone
Week 5 of the college football regular season was a massive one, and while Week 6 doesn’t pack the same type of punch, there is still plenty to be excited about in regards to the upcoming weekend of football – even the small weekday slates prior to Saturday’s massive card. There are as many as 5 FBS vs FBS matchups on Friday night, headlined by an intriguing Conference USA matchup between Western Kentucky and FBS-newcomer Delaware and a couple late-night Mountain West bouts.
I recognize there are more betting options this Friday than there were on previous Fridays to this point of the college football season, but the options are still limited. We’re not going to force anything ahead of Saturday’s massive slate, headlined by intriguing matchups like Vanderbilt vs Alabama, Miami vs Florida State, and Texas vs Florida. With that being said, here is my best bet for Friday’s Week 6 slate, and don’t forget to read all of our NCAAF predictions for the upcoming weekend in college football.
CFB Friday best bet: San Diego State Aztecs -6 over Colorado State Rams (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.
Colorado State’s offense has failed to get going this season despite having a mid-September bye and 3 of its 4 games at home. The Rams have scored just 19 combined points in their last 2 games against UTSA and Washington State, which is especially concerning when you consider those teams are outside the top 95 in yards per play and PPA per play allowed. Moreover, the Rams have repeatedly failed to put themselves into positive scoring situations, as they are 122nd nationally in total quality drives this season – which is a metric that measures the amount of times a team crosses the opposing 40-yard line. The Rams have done that just 18 times in 4 games, with 6 or 7 of them coming in a 21-17 win over FCS Northern Colorado. For what it’s worth, half of those quality drives against Northern Colorado ended with a turnover or a missed field goal, which is the norm for this offense – as Colorado State ranks 103rd in points per quality drive and 112th in havoc allowed outside of garbage time.
The Rams are unlikely to come to life offensively against this San Diego State defense. The Aztecs are elite in multiple advanced metrics, ranking top 15 nationally in yards per play, PPA per play (both rush and pass), points per quality drive, success rate, standard down PPA and passing down PPA. On top of that, they are 12th in surrendered explosiveness, 22nd in opposing third-down conversion rate and 29th in power success allowed. It shows on the field, as SDSU shut Cal out 2 weeks ago before holding Northern Illinois to 3 points in a cross-country road trip last week. This team hasn’t allowed a single point yet in either home game, so given Colorado State’s offensive woes, I don’t expect many points from the Rams in San Diego on Friday night. I have the Aztecs power-rated closer to a 7.5-point favorite than a 6-point favorite, so let’s lay it with the home favorite on Friday.
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