Week 6 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Saturday, October 4

The first five weeks of the college football season has certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 5 slate that had a little bit of everything, this week’s action might seem like a letdown by comparison. However, we still have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.

With the sixth week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We’ve had an up-and-down start to the season thus far, so let’s bounce back this week with a trio of best bets! Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.

CFB best bet: Florida State Seminoles +4.5 vs Miami Hurricanes (-108)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Florida State +4 (-110). 

After years of coming close but ultimately falling outside of the College Football Playoff picture, Miami appears to be among the elite in the sport this season. Carson Beck has been excellent in his first season in South Beach and he leads a Hurricanes offense that is 20th in success rate, 16th in 3rd and 4th down success rate and 21st in EPA per dropback per CFB-Graphs. Miami has one of the best offensive lines in the nation and this has allowed the Hurricanes to establish early dominance in games against inferior competition.

While the Hurricanes have dominated up front all season long, that shouldn’t be the case on Saturday against a Florida State defensive front that has plenty of talent and has shown the propensity to stop the run (18th in rushing success rate allowed). Add in what should be a raucous environment at Doak Campbell Stadium, and you have a recipe for success for a defense that is coming off a poor effort and should be extremely motivated to bounce back. On the other side, the Florida State offense has been excellent through the first month of the campaign, and I do expect that the Seminoles will be able to score against a Miami defense that does have middling metrics when it comes to rushing success rate allowed and points per quality drive.

This game certainly has the potential to devolve into more of a shootout, which should leave the backdoor open for the hosts, even if the Seminoles find themselves trailing for the majority of the contest. Lastly, from a situational perspective, this is a pretty good setup for Florida State. After all, Mike Norvell’s team just lost at Virginia in a spot where it felt like they were looking ahead a bit to this matchup. Coming off the field storming and getting an arch-rival at home in a game that they’ve probably had circled since the offseason, it shouldn’t be a challenge for the ‘Noles to put forth their best effort in this spot. I’ll take the points and sprinkle a bit on Florida State to win outright.

Lock in our expert’s Miami vs Florida State predictions for Saturday

CFB best bet: Boise State Broncos vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Over 62.5 (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 63.5

It’s not the biggest game of the week, but Saturday’s contest between Boise State and Notre Dame is one that promises to produce some fireworks. Boise State got off to a rocky start in Week 1, as the Broncos were clearly adjusting to life without Ashton Jeany. However, following that defeat at the hands of a very strong USF team, the Broncos have gotten back on track in a big way with convincing wins over Eastern Washington, Air Force and Appalachian State in recent weeks.

Boise State returned plenty of production from last season’s offense, including quarterback Maddux Madsen and a couple of excellent receiving targets, and the passing game has come alive over the last few weeks in their victories. The rushing attack hasn’t been the same without a generational talent like Jeanty, but the Broncos still have a 3-headed monster in the backfield with Sire Gaines, Dylan Riley and Malik Sherrod all taking turns sharing the success behind a veteran offensive line. This is an experienced offense that should be able to put up points against a Notre Dame defense that has a host of issues, as the Irish sit outside the top 100 in passing success rate allowed and quality drive rate (CFB-Graphs).

On the other side of the ball, the one thing we know about Notre Dame is that it has one of the top offenses in college football. Despite struggling out of the gate in Week 1 against Miami, the Irish have racked up at least 40 points in each of their last 3 contests. Furthermore, they’ve put up 56 points in each of their last 2 games, including a road win over Arkansas a week ago that was as dominant of an offensive showing as you can think of. Now, the Irish will be going up against a Broncos defense that can be had in the run game (71st in EPA per rush, 96th in Early Downs EPA) and really struggled to get off the field against Air Force a few weeks ago.

Boise State’s weaknesses on defense are not a recipe for success against Jeremiyah Love and a Notre Dame rush attack that is as lethal and efficient as any across college football. The Irish are a top 10 unit both Early Downs and 3rd and 4th downs, in addition to ranking first nationally in points scored per quality drive (a possession inside the opponent’s 40-yard line). With that in mind, I’d look for Notre Dame to put forth another 40+ point performance in this one, and Boise State should hold up its end of the bargain enough to push this game over the total.

Don’t miss our full Boise State vs Notre Dame predictions

CFB best bet: Louisville Cardinals -6.5 over Virginia Cavaliers (-105)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

From a situational perspective, this is about as good of a spot as you can find on the Week 6 slate, as Virginia is coming off a momentous upset victory over Florida State at home last week. Now, the Cavaliers are undefeated and receiving plenty of buzz before heading to a game against a Louisville side that I still believe is one of the best teams in this conference. Jeff Brohm’s team has been very strong at home in his tenure to this point, and this could certainly be a spot where Virginia is still a bit hungover from a game in which the Cavaliers were frankly a bit fortunate to win.

Even outside of the situational angle, this is still a game where the home side should hold some significant advantages. There’s no doubt that the Virginia offense has some real juice to it, and that was part of why I was all over the Cavaliers to cover the number as home underdogs a week ago. Chandler Morris has been around the block a few times and he’s an experienced quarterback that leads an offense that is putting up points at a very high rate, as the Cavaliers are a top 15 unit in passing success rate, 3rd and 4th down success rate and points per drive per CFB-Graphs.

While the Virginia offense is pretty strong across the board, this Louisville defense is pretty underrated, with the Cardinals sitting inside the top 15 in points per quality drive, 3rd and 4th down success rate and quality drive rate allowed. Louisville is also a top 40 unit in havoc rate, meaning that it should be able to force Morris into some ill-advised throws that lead to turnovers, much like we saw a week ago. On the other side of the ball, Miller Moss and the Louisville offense is one that should see plenty of success against a Virginia defense that just surrendered more than 500 yards to Florida State a week ago, and currently sits at 89th in points per drive allowed on the season. I’ll lay the points with the home team on Saturday.

Read our full Virginia vs Louisville predictions