Week 7 of the college football regular season is yet another loaded slate with multiple high-profile matchups. In fact, there are 3 ranked vs. ranked matchups, with as many as 10 other ranked teams hosting opponents with winning records. From noon ET until well after midnight out on the island, expect an exhilarating day of college football.
Like I do every week, I’ve compiled a few of my favorite bets on the Week 7 slate and combined them into a college football parlay with +570 odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook. Let’s briefly analyze each leg before you head over to our NCAAF predictions ahead of the massive slate.
UCF +11 (-110)
Texas A&M -7.5 (-104)
BYU ML (-120)
Week 7 Saturday CFB parlay odds: +570
UCF Knights +11 over Cincinnati Bearcats (-110)
With Cincinnati off to a 2-0 start in Big 12 play and UCF sitting at 0-2, these teams are already trending in completely opposite directions – which is exactly why I feel there is value on this point spread. My numbers have UCF closer to an 8-point underdog, and now that the line has moved up to 11 in some spots, I am buying the Knights heading to a familiar destination dating back to their days together in the American Athletic Conference.
Though Cincinnati’s perfect start in conference looks impressive on paper, I question how good this team really is. The Bearcats surrendered 597 yards at Kansas in a winning effort a couple weeks ago, but they really could have lost that game if it wasn’t for Jalon Daniels’ goal-line fumble early in the 4th quarter. Last week, Cincinnati sprinted out to a massive 31-7 first-half lead over an undermanned Iowa State squad, but nearly squandered the game – as the Cyclones stormed back to make things interesting. Despite the win, Cincinnati gave up 470 total yards of offense.
UCF’s conference schedule thus far has been hampered by turnovers. Luckily for the Knights, Cincinnati doesn’t generate many takeaways. In fact, Kansas’ red zone fumble was Cincinnati’s only takeaway in an FBS game this year. If they can manage a relatively clean performance offensively, I like the Knights to keep this one within the number against a seemingly-overvalued Cincinnati squad early on Saturday.
For a pick on the total in this game, check out our UCF vs Cincinnati prediction
Texas A&M Aggies -7.5 over Florida Gators (-104)
The Aggies should be very comfortable in this spot on Saturday, as this will be their third straight home game and 5th of the season before ending with 4 road trips in 6 contests. Meanwhile, the Gators are in a much more difficult spot despite riding-high off their upset win over Texas last week. This will be their third road game in 4 outings after they lost both of their previous road trips by a combined score of 46-17. Moreover, they face an uphill battle against historical trends when they travel to College Station. Since 2021, conference underdogs playing on the road against a ranked opponent after just winning at home as an underdog are just 6-21 ATS and 1-27 SU. When teams in these positions are catching 2 touchdowns or less on the point spread, they are just 2-15 ATS.
While he played better last week, Florida QB DJ Lagway is not someone I trust on the road, as his LSU performance is still engrained in my head. He had 5 interceptions and 6 turnover-worthy plays in that game, and now faces a Texas A&M defense that held both Auburn and Mississippi State to fewer than 220 total yards and ranks top-15 in havoc generated outside of garbage time. I power rate Texas A&M as an 8.2-point favorite in this game, so let’s follow the marriage of projections and trends and include the Aggies in this parlay.
Read our full Florida vs Texas A&M prediction, including picks on the side and total
BYU Cougars ML over Arizona Wildcats (-120)
Boasting a perfect 5-0 record, all the Cougars have done is win – no matter if it was way out east on the coast of the Atlantic or up in the mountains. With road games at East Carolina and Colorado under its belt, a trip to Tucson, Arizona to play the Wildcats is unlikely to faze BYU.
The Cougars have been strong on both sides of the ball. They scored at least 24 points in every game to this point and rank in the top 30 in yards per play and PPA. The Cougars have been safe with the ball as well, sitting top-30 in giveaways per game and total havoc allowed. They will be countered by an Arizona defense that grades well, but I’m not buying this unit being as good as the numbers indicate. In fact, the Wildcats have yet to play an offense that is top-40 in PPA per play or top-70 in points per quality drive.
Defensively, the Cougars are top 20 in PPA per play and yards per play allowed, along with top 35 in points allowed per quality drive and third-down conversion rate. On paper, they have a plus-matchup against an Arizona offense that sits outside the top 80 in PPA per play, third downs and points per quality drive in lieu of its 4-1 record. This feels like a step-up in class for Arizona, as I would argue this BYU squad is the most balanced of any team the Wildcats have played to this point. I have BYU north of a 3.5-point favorite here, so give me the ‘Cougs with an affordable money line price to finish our Saturday NCAAF parlay.
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