Week 7 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Friday, October 10 - Points galore in Denton

There aren’t many Friday games in Week 7 of the college football season, but the 3 FBS vs. FBS matchups on the card offer varying levels of intrigue. Leading off the night at 7:30 PM ET, the 4-1 South Florida Bulls hit the road to play the undefeated North Texas Mean Green, who are off a bye, as both teams aim to move to 2-0 in the AAC conference standings. An hour and a half later, Fresno State vs. Colorado State and Rutgers vs. Washington will kick off. 

The Fresno State Bulldogs are 5-1 and a perfect 2-0 in league play ahead of their trip to Fort Collins, looking to move to 3-0 for what would be a commanding early lead in the Mountain West race. Meanwhile, Rutgers hopes to continue its run of quality play following bye weeks under coach Greg Schiano when the Scarlet Knights travel to Seattle to play a Washington squad that needed a comeback win at Maryland last week. 

Here is my favorite bet of Friday’s Week 7 slate with odds courtesy of BetMGM. Don’t forget to find our college football picks on the rest of this week’s card!

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CFB Best Bet: South Florida Bulls vs. North Texas Mean Green over 66.5 (-110)

This is a very high total, but North Texas is no stranger to high totals. Last season, 8 of the Mean Green’s games were listed with a total of 66.5 or higher, and 5 of those games went over the total – including 3 overs with totals in the 70s. This season, UNT hasn’t had a total that high just yet, and both of its games with a total north of 60 stayed under. Meanwhile, USF’s 2 games with a total of 58 or higher both stayed under, as well. Despite the 4 combined unders on totals of 58 or higher, oddsmakers list the total of this game at 66.5, indicating a strong belief that points will be in abundance in this AAC matchup on Friday night. 

It makes sense, as both teams play fast. South Florida is 3rd nationally in seconds per play, while North Texas is 19th. Furthermore, the Bulls and the Mean Green are above-average in terms of big-play rate, mutually residing in the top 40 in yards per play against FBS opponents and top 55 in explosiveness per play outside of garbage time. Their fast pace of play and big-play ability pays off once they cross over the opposing 40-yard line, as both teams are top 30 in red zone scoring (including field goals) and top 50 in points per quality drive. In fact, UNT is 2nd nationally in red zone touchdowns, crossing the goal line on 25 of their 31 red zone trips. 

Given the expected pace of play combined with the offensive success both South Florida and North Texas have had this season, playing the over in this American Athletic Conference is one of, if not my favorite bet on Friday’s short CFB card. For what it’s worth, USF scored 117 combined points in its last 2 games, while UNT put up 140 in its last 3. The offensive onslaught should continue here. 

Find our South Florida vs North Texas prediction for this primetime Friday night showdown