The first six weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 6 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, this week’s action features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences across both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.
With the 7th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We’ve had an up-and-down start to the season thus far, so let’s bounce back this week with a trio of best bets! Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.
CFB best bet: USC Trojans ML over Michigan Wolverines (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
This is certainly a clash of styles, and while the Wolverines appear to be one of the better teams in the conference to this point, this is a great situational spot to back Lincoln Riley and a USC team that just had a bye week to rest and recuperate following a disappointing road loss to Illinois. These eastern and midwestern Big Ten teams that head to the West Coast have historically struggled over the last year and a half, and the Trojans are catching Michigan in a pretty great travel spot with the Wolverines having just won a grinder of a game at home against Wisconsin last weekend. Needlessly to say, this will be a much stiffer test for Michigan on the road against a USC team that is eager to make a statement.
While USC is coming off a loss in its only game against a ranked opponent this season, that was an awful spot for the Trojans, as USC dealt with cross-country travel and an early start time to go along with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball. The Trojans should be noticeably healthier in this contest, as defensive leader Kamari Ramsey is expected to play after missing the game against Illinois, while star wideout Ja’Kobi Lane should be close to full health after playing less than half of the offensive snaps 2 weeks ago. That should be a massive boost for a USC offense that has been an absolute machine to this point, as the Trojans sit at 4th in success rate, 1st in EPA per play and 1st in points per drive (CFB-Graphs).
On the other side, the Michigan defense has been strong overall, but there are certainly concerns I have with this matchup, most notably how the unproven Wolverines secondary will handle Jayden Maiava and the USC passing attack (4th in passing success rate, 3nd in EPA per pass, 6th in Early Downs EPA). Conversely, while Bryce Underwood is undoubtedly a talent worthy of the massive hype, he hasn’t been all that effective in his pair of road starts this season. The Wolverines passing game still looks like a fairly broken operation, and I can’t see that changing too much this week against a surprisingly solid USC pass defense (18th in opponent EPA per dropback). Ultimately, I’ll lean on the hosts to get the job done on the west coast.
Lock in our expert’s Michigan vs USC predictions for Saturday
CFB best bet: Missouri Tigers +3.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Missouri +3.
From a situational perspective, this is about as good of a spot as you can find on the Week 7 slate, and I intend to take advantage of it. On one side, Missouri comes in off a bye week and played UMass the week prior to its bye — so the Tigers have essentially had 2 extra weeks off to prepare for this game. Conversely, Alabama is in a brutal sandwich spot after knocking off Georgia in Athens and following that up with a double-digit win over Vanderbilt in a revenge spot of last season’s embarrassing loss. Now, Kalen DeBoer’s side will have to travel to Missouri for a date with the Tigers, all while staring at a massive rivalry game against Tennessee on deck. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Crimson Tide are a bit flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from a couple of games that they were frankly a bit fortunate to win and/or cover.
As for the hosts, Missouri has typically been at its best in the underdog role under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday — especially with the Tigers having a massive edge in terms of preparation time and rest. Alabama’s defense still leaves a bit to be desired, particularly when it comes to defending the run, and Missouri is not the team you want to face if your run defense isn’t sound. Tigers quarterback Beau Pribula is as underrated of a dual-threat QB as we have in the nation, and Ahmad Hardy has been one of the best running backs in the country to this point. As long as the Tigers are able to stay ahead of the chains on the ground (5th in rushing success rate, 2nd in 3rd & 4th down success rate), this sets up as a spot where Missouri could put up plenty of points and push Alabama to the brink, if not win the game outright.
Read our full Alabama vs Missouri predictions
CFB best bet: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Utah Utes 1H Under 23.5 (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Under 23.
While the SEC and Big Ten take center stage on Saturday, one of the biggest games of the weekend comes in the Big 12, where the Arizona State Sun Devils are set to take on the Utah Utes in a battle between a couple of teams looking to remain in the running for a conference title game appearance come December. Kyle Whittingham’s team is one that I was high on before the season, and while the Utes looked overmatched against Texas Tech, some of their key pieces were banged up on both sides in that game — including quarterback Devon Dampier. With both teams off a bye week, there isn’t much in the way of a rest advantage in this one. And while I’d ordinarily look to the Utes in this spot, a play on the total is my preferred way to attack this game.
Utah’s offense struggled mightily against the Texas Tech defensive front, and we just saw how Arizona State’s defensive line dominated the line of scrimmage in a win over TCU. That could give us a bit of a template for how the Sun Devils can cause some disruption and alter the game. On the other side of the ball, Sam Leavitt is listed as doubtful for this game, and I don’t expect him to suit up. The Sun Devils have already struggled with finishing drives, and that certainly won’t improve with Leavitt either hobbled or out against a Utes pass defense that is 17th in EPA per dropback and 10th in passing success rate allowed. Ultimately, each of these teams has struggled a bit on offense when stepping up in class, and I could certainly see a feeling-out process in the first half of this game as both sides get used to the opponent.
Don’t miss our full Arizona State vs Utah predictions
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