Sam Avellone
College football Week 8 is massive, with as many as 5 ranked matchups and various other games of intrigue at both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. While most of the action is on Saturday, Friday provides us with a nice starter ahead of the loaded slate. Three power-conference matchups headline the card, starting at 7:00 pm ET in Miami between the Louisville Cardinals and the Hurricanes. At 8:00 pm ET, the Nebraska Cornhuskers visit Minnesota to play the Golden Gophers in a Big Ten clash ahead of a couple of games out west in San Jose State vs Utah State and North Carolina vs Cal at 9:00 pm ET and 10:30 pm ET, respectively.
It’s nice to see multiple power-conference games on a small slate. However, in an attempt to improve on my 6-2 record in this weekday best bet series, I’m actually going to target the only Group of 5 matchup on Friday for this week’s best bet.
Let’s get to the analysis, and don’t forget to read our NCAAF predictions for more than 30 games on the loaded Week 8 slate.
CFB Friday best bet: San Jose State vs Utah State Over 61.5 (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to 64.5.
This week’s pick resembles last Friday’s CFB best bet in that it is a high total that I feel is not high enough. The San Jose State Spartans travel to Logan, Utah for a date with the Utah State Aggies, and there are certainly interesting travel dynamics at play for both teams. San Jose State just played in Laramie, Wyoming last week – the highest elevation in college football – and now has to travel up to Logan in less than a week’s time to play again at extreme elevation.
Typically, I would hammer the home team in this spot, but the Aggies weren’t at home last week. In fact, they weren’t even in the continental United States over the weekend being that they played in Hawaii and lost 44-26. With mutual, notable travel circumstances coming into this contest, look for the offenses to control this game and take advantage of potentially tired legs on defense.
Travel isn’t the only reason I like the over in this spot, as these teams are already teams that trend to the over – which is especially notable when you consider San Jose State has not played anyone that operates with the same tempo as Utah State. With the Aggies being at home, expect the game to skew more towards their tempo. It’s not like this is a massive clash in styles by any means, as the Spartans are top 60 in tempo to this point.
Pace of play will always matter when it comes to cashing an over on a total this high, but ample quality drives into the red zone don’t matter if the offenses can’t finish them with touchdowns more often than not. Luckily for us, these teams are capable of doing just that. Over the last 5 weeks, the Aggies are second nationally in points scored per quality drive outside of garbage time, and that includes a road game against an SEC opponent. San Jose State hasn’t been nearly as efficient as Utah State at converting its quality drives into touchdowns, but given the fact that Utah State is 132nd in points surrendered per quality drive since Week 3, the Spartans should be just fine in the scoring department.
On a play-to-play basis, both SJSU and USU are highly efficient. The Spartans and the Aggies mutually reside in the top 30 in PPA per play, and neither allows a ton of havoc – not that these defenses generate much havoc, anyway. In a convergence of situational angles and statistical trends, give me the over in this Mountain West showdown on Friday night.
Check out our CFB Friday parlay picks for tonight along with our Louisville vs Miami Same Game Parlay at +550 odds!
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