Week 8 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Saturday, October 18

The first 7 weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 7 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, this week’s action features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences across both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.

With the 8th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We bounced back with a winning weekend last week, so let’s keep the momentum going with a trio of best bets! Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.

CFB best bet: Utah Utes -3 over BYU Cougars (-110)

Odds taken from game preview published on October 15. Playable to Utah -3 (-120).   

One of the biggest games of the weekend comes in the Big 12, where the BYU Cougars are set to take on the Utah Utes in the annual “Holy War” game. This is a battle between a couple of heated rivals, and I’m confident in the Utes to exact a bit of revenge from last year’s heartbreaking defeat at home, in which Utah was one late flag call away from knocking off a better version of this BYU team, while also starting its fourth string quarterback in that game. It goes without saying that Kyle Whittingham’s team is in a much better situation from an injury perspective this time around, and Utah should play with revenge on its mind in a hostile road environment.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen the Utes bounce back in a big way after looking a bit overmatched against Texas Tech last month. As it turned out, some of the Utes’ key pieces were banged up on both sides in that game — including quarterback Devon Dampier. The dynamic Dampier has looked like his old self of late, including rushing for 120 yards and 3 touchdowns against a very solid Arizona State defensive front a week ago. Even while playing a pretty solid schedule thus far, the Utah offense is 8th in success rate and 1st in 3rd and 4th down success rate for a reason, and Jason Beck’s unit should see success against a BYU defense that is certainly due for some major turnover regression going forward.

As for BYU, it has certainly been one of the more fortunate teams in the Power 4 to this point — with the Cougars benefiting massively from turnover luck on both sides of the ball against the likes of East Carolina and Colorado, while also squeaking out a comeback victory over Arizona a week ago. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has certainly been impressive and poised to this point, but the Utah defense is a completely different animal for a young player. Morgan Scalley’s unit is 13th in success rate allowed, 11th in Early Downs EPA and 11th in quality drive rate allowed (CFB-Graphs), so it’s hard to see BYU having much success in a game where the Cougars won’t have the edge on the line of scrimmage. I’ll lay the points with the Utes in this one.

Lock in our expert’s Utah vs BYU predictions for Saturday

CFB best bet: Washington Huskies +6.5 vs Michigan Wolverines (-110)

Odds taken from game preview published on October 14. Playable to Washington +6

Last week I was all over USC in a clear fade of Michigan in a bad spot, and the Wolverines were never truly in that game against a Trojans offense that sliced and diced their way through the Michigan defense. While the prevailing thought would be to back the Wolverines in a bounce-back spot at home, I’m more inclined to look toward Washington in a game in which I have real matchup concerns for Michigan for a second straight week.

While Michigan’s defense has typically been the strength of the team in recent seasons, I have a hard time seeing this Wolverines unit producing against a Washington offense that is 11th in success rate, 10th in passing success rate, 6th in 3rd and 4th down success rate, 2nd in quality drive rate and 17th in points per drive (CFB-Graphs). Outside of a difficult game against Ohio State — arguably the best defense in the country — this has been an excellent unit, and I’m of the belief that Demond Williams Jr, Jonah Coleman, Denzel Boston and company should be able to generate success against a Michigan defense that is shocking poor in the secondary (80th in passing success rate allowed). The Wolverines just struggled mightily against the dynamic USC offense, and while Washington doesn’t necessarily pose the same challenges as USC’s elite passing game, this is still an offense that can put up points in bunches and has as good of a 2-headed monster in the backfield as any team across the nation.

On the other side, while Bryce Underwood is undoubtedly a talent worthy of the massive hype, he hasn’t been all that effective when Michigan has had to step up in class this season. The Wolverines could be without Justice Haynes in this game, which would be a massive blow against a Washington run defense that has been surprisingly stout in that department this season (16th in EPA per rush, 33rd in rushing success rate allowed). Regardless of if Haynes suits up, the Michigan passing game still looks like a pretty broken operation, and I just don’t see any difference makers  in this wide receiver room. Ultimately, I’ll bank on the visitors to keep this game within a possession in what should be a competitive matchup from start to finish.

Don’t miss our full Washington vs Michigan predictions

CFB best bet: Purdue Boilermakers +3.5 vs Northwestern Wildcats (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Purdue +3.

From a situational perspective, this is about as good of a spot as you can find on the Week 8 slate — and I intend to take advantage of it. On one side, Purdue comes in following a game in which the Boilermakers should’ve knocked off Minnesota if not for 4 turnovers, including a pick-6 in the fourth quarter to give the Gophers the late lead. Purdue still outgained Minnesota by nearly 200 yards and averaged nearly 6 yards per play, while holding the Gophers to just 30 rushing yards on the other end. This followed a game in which the Boilermakers were unlucky in a loss against Illinois, as Purdue lost 2 fumbles that proved to be a major difference in that game, despite the fact that it tallied nearly 500 yards of offense and registered 6 yards per play.

Conversely, Northwestern is in a brutal letdown spot after knocking off Penn State on the road as a massive 3 touchdown underdog. Now, David Braun’s side will have to take on Purdue, all while staring at a game at Nebraska on deck. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Wildcats are a bit flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s win, a game in which they were pretty fortunate to emerge with a victory. This is still an offense that struggles mightily to generate consistent success (110th in Early Downs EPA), especially through the air (97th in EPA per dropback), so Purdue’s defensive struggles shouldn’t matter as much in this game. And if the Boilermakers are able to cut out some of the costly mistakes from previous weeks, this is certainly a contest that the Boilermakers can win outright. As long as we’re getting over a field goal, I have to take the points with the underdog.