Week 8 Line Movements, Odds, and Betting Report
By the time the games kickoff, NFL lines often look considerably different from where they opened. Sportsbooks frequently adjust lines throughout the week both to balance the action, and to adjust to sharp money coming in from respected bettors. Today, we’ll be taking a look at a few of the more significant week 8 line movements from this games and what they mean.
This game opened at 6.5 pretty much everywhere, and has ticked progressively up. Chicago now sits at -7.5 across the board, and that number is trending close to 8 with bettors having to pay extra juice if they want to grab the 7.5. It’s a very significant move, as it’s crossed the ultra-key number of 7. The move likely has something to do with the extensive injuries the Jets are dealing with on both sides of the ball. After taking steps forward each of the previous few weeks, Sam Darnold and the Jets’ offense took a massive step backward against the Vikings. Darnold looked overmatched, and was inaccurate and under duress throughout the day. Sharp bettors are clearly thinking the Bears’ similarly tough defense will give Darnold fits as well, and that’s the reason this line has taken off.
The total on this game has progressively ticked down from where it opened at 55.5 to where it currently stands at 53.5. The Broncos’ defense actually played pretty well against the Chiefs in their first meeting, and Kansas City’s bottom of the barrel defense has started to show signs of improvement. Denver erupted for 45 points last week against Arizona, but most of that scoring was done by the defense and Case Keenum did very little. Sharp bettors clearly have very little confidence in Keenum, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this number continued to tick down.
This game has moved through the zero and changed favorites. Baltimore opened as a one point underdog, but is now a 2 or 2.5 point favorite depending on the shop. Carolina won in Philadelphia last week, but their win was hardly inspiring. The Panthers were getting blown out most of the game, but launched a miraculous fourth quarter comeback. Their secondary still has major questions, and Cam Newton is now dealing with a shoulder injury. With all of Joe Flacco’s new weapons, he should be able to take advantage of the leaky secondary. Pro bettors are high on the Ravens this year, and it’s not surprising this line has trended toward Baltimore. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game closed closer to a field goal.
This game has seen some movement on both the side and total. The Eagles opened as a 2.5 point favorite at most shops, which quickly moved out to 3.5. There was some resistance once it got to 3.5 , and it’s back down to three now. The total has trended upward, from its opening spot of 41 up to 43. The Eagles’ secondary is dealing with a bunch of injuries, and Jaguars star cornerback A.J. Bouye was recently announced out with a calf injury, likely contributing to this rise. Blake Bortles is likely good for a turnover or two which could set the Eagles up for easy scores. The total may continue to tick up, but it will be really interesting to see where the side goes. If it gets back up to 3.5, there may continue to be professional money come in on the Jaguars in the ultimate buy-low spot.