Whether you can believe it or not, college football Week 9 is here — which means Halloween is right around the corner. Following a few notable upsets in Week 8, ranked teams and CFB betting favorites come into this week hoping to be treated to wins rather than tricked into losses. A ranked matchup between Ole Miss and Oklahoma and a massive Group of 5 showdown between South Florida and Memphis headline the noon ET window, followed by an afternoon window headlined by Missouri vs Vanderbilt and BYU vs Iowa State and a night slate centered around Texas A&M’s trip to LSU at 7:30 pm ET on ABC.
On the heels of our Week 7 winner, last week’s parlay missed the money by 1 leg — but we’re right back on the saddle in Week 9, looking for another winner. Here are my favorite picks for Saturday’s upcoming slate, parlayed together on DraftKings Sportsbook at +581 odds. Let’s break down each leg before you head over to our NCAAF predictions and CFB best bets for more analysis on more than 30 matchups.
Wake Forest +3 (-108)
Kansas State +3.5 (-112)
Toledo ML (-115)
CFB Week 9 Saturday parlay odds: +581
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Wake Forest Demon Deacons +3 over SMU Mustangs (-108)
If you believe in old-school situational handicapping, then you’re going to love betting against SMU this week. Fresh off a win at Clemson in an ACC Championship revenge game last week, the Mustangs will make the trip to Winston-Salem for a meeting with Wake Forest in what will be their second road game in as many weeks. Not only will SMU play on the road again, but the Mustangs are also in an obvious sandwich spot given they host Miami next week in what will be an influential ACC matchup if SMU were to come away with a win on Saturday. On top of the sandwich spot, Wake Forest enters this contest off a bye.
Could SMU look past Wake Forest here? I think it’s a very real possibility. Look for Wake Forest to lean on its pass defense to keep this game close and winnable. Grab the key number of +3 for the first leg of our parlay before it disappears.
Read our full SMU vs Wake Forest prediction
Kansas State Wildcats +3.5 over Kansas Jayhawks (-112)
In case you haven’t heard, Kansas State has won every single game in the Sunflower Showdown rivalry series since 2009 — 16 straight games. Despite the long-standing winning streak for KSU, the Wildcats find themselves in the underdog role when they travel to Lawrence to play in the brand new David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Considering Kansas hasn’t won a game in this series in more than 15 years, being listed as more than a field-goal favorite is a strong market indicator as to what oddsmakers feel will happen in this matchup. Normally I gravitate toward these types of favorites, much like we did last week with Vanderbilt. However, I’m not seeing it with this Kansas team.
The Jayhawks 4-3 record looks good on the surface and much better than the Wildcats 3-4 record. However, I don’t see much of a difference between these resumes. Per Sagarin, the strength-of-schedules are similar, and I give Kansas State the best win of the bunch. On top of that, while the Wildcats have more losses, none of them have been by more than 6 points. In comparison, Kansas was out-scored by 26 points in the final 3 quarters in a 42-31 loss to Missouri, surrendered more than 600 yards to a visiting Cincinnati offense, and went scoreless in 3 of 4 quarters in a 42-17 loss against Texas Tech right before the bye.
Sure, being without RB Dylan Edwards and DE Tobi Osunsanmi is less than ideal for KSU — but it’s not game-changing. If Kansas manages to break the losing streak, I don’t see it being by more than 3. Give me the points.
Check out our Kansas State vs Kansas prediction for a play on the total in the Sunflower Showdown
Toledo Rockets ML over Washington State Cougars (-115)
This is another interesting spot situationally, as Washington State could be a victim of its random schedule. Separated by a bye week between the first and second game, the Cougars have been on the road for 3 straight. However, the 2 most recent ones were out east against Power 4 foes in Ole Miss and Virginia. Wazzu gave everything it could in those games, losing by a combined 5 points despite catching as many as 32 points at Ole Miss and 17 at Virginia. Now the Cougars return home for the first time since September 20, but how focused will they be on a MAC opponent in Toledo ahead of a road trip to Oregon State — their lone running mate in the “Pac-12?”
With mutual cross-country travel and a potentially sleepy spot for Washington State, look for Toledo to escape with the win in Pullman thanks to a stout defense that is top 5 in yards per play this season and PPA per play over the last 5 weeks.
Now find our expert’s Week 9 CFB best bets
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