We’re rolling right through this college football regular season, as Week 9 is already underway with multiple midweek Group of 5 matchups. The weekend slate kicks off on Friday night with a trio of FBS vs. FBS matchups, starting with an AAC battle between North Texas and Charlotte at 7:00PM ET on ESPN2, followed by an ACC matchup between Cal and Virginia Tech at 7:30PM ET on ESPN and capped off with a Mountain West bout between Boise State and Nevada at 10:00PM ET on CBS Sports.
There aren’t many spots to pick from on this condensed Friday card, but there is one angle I like more than the rest. Here is my college football best bet for Friday, but don’t forget to check out all of our NCAAF predictions for the massive Week 9 slate.
CFB Best Bet: North Texas Mean Green 1H Team Total over 23.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.
This should be a smash spot for North Texas’ offense. The Mean Green have absolutely been rolling lately. In fact, they’ve been a force all season long, failing to score at least 35 points just once this year. This week, they will take on a hapless Charlotte defense that has surrendered 127 combined points in its last 3 games. The 49ers are 111th in yards per play allowed, and they haven’t been able to get off the field when it matters most – ranking 101st in third-down conversion rate allowed on the season. More recently, Charlotte sits outside the top 115 in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive outside of garbage time since Week 4, and to make matters worse, the 49ers aren’t very opportunistic on the defensive side of the ball given their rank of 132 out of 136 FBS teams in havoc generated since mid-September.
North Texas should be able to take full advantage of Charlotte’s defensive inefficiencies, as the Mean Green boast an offense that resides in the top 30 in PPA per play and points per quality drive over the last 5 weeks, as well as 22nd in yards per play and 30th in third-down conversion rate on the season as a whole. They are highly productive on both standard and passing downs, making them a threat at any point, and they’ve produced points in the first half more often than not. In fact, UNT is 3rd nationally in first half points per game against FBS opponents. Admittedly, the Mean Green are much better early in games when they play at home, but let’s not pretend like Charlotte offers much resistance, if any. The 49ers are 130th in first half points surrendered per game, yielding an average of 26 points in the opening half in each of their last 3 games.
There should be plenty of possessions in the opening half to surpass this number. Both of these teams are top-50 in seconds per play against FBS opponents, and Charlotte may even give UNT the ball once or twice – setting up scoring opportunities with a short field. For reference, the 49ers are 126th this season in turnover margin, while the Mean Green ranks 4th. With Navy on deck, look for North Texas to try to put this game away before halftime by collecting early touchdowns and surpassing the first-half team total going into the intermission.
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