The first 8 weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 8 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, this week’s action features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences across both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.
With the 9th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. Unfortunately, we went winless in the column a week ago, so things can only go up this week! Let’s take a look at my trio of CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.
CFB best bet: Iowa State Cyclones -2.5 over BYU Cougars (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable at the current number.
Arguably the most important game in the Big 12 on Saturday comes in the midwest, where the Iowa State Cyclones are set to host the BYU Cougars in a game that could decide the fate of both teams in the conference title race this season. While BYU is undefeated on the season, the Cougars statistical profile doesn’t quite match their resume to this point. With that in mind, it’s not a surprise that Iowa State is a small favorite at home and the Cyclones are one of my favorite bets on the board this weekend.
For starters, this is a pretty excellent situational spot for Iowa State, as Matt Campbell’s team is coming off a bye week to rest and get a lot healthier following a difficult stretch of road games against Cincinnati and Colorado, both of which resulted in losses. Now, you’re getting one of the best coaches in the Big 12 in desperation spot against a BYU team that is not only coming off a win in the Holy War over Utah, but a comeback overtime victory against Arizona the week before, a game in which the Cougars were trailing by double digits in the 4th quarter. There’s no doubt that while BYU is certainly a good team — one that has outperformed preseason expectations — the Cougars have been pretty fortunate to remain undefeated through a gauntlet of a Big 12 schedule to this point.
Campbell has been excellent when coming out of a bye week in his career, and this should also be the healthiest Iowa State has been in weeks, with the Cyclones set to get key contributors back on defense and special teams for this game. The Iowa State defense is 24th in EPA per rush and 28th in Early Downs EPA, so the Cyclones should be able to slow down Bear Bachmeier and the BYU rushing attack, especially since the Cougars have already struggled with finishing drives this season. On the other side, Rocco Becht and the Iowa State offense is a top 20 unit in quality drives created, which bodes well for this matchup. Look for Campbell’s offense to be at its best off the bye week in a massive hype spot at home. All things considered, I’ll lay the points with the Cyclones at home.
Lock in our expert’s BYU vs Iowa State predictions for Saturday
CFB best bet: Washington Huskies & Oklahoma Sooners ML Parlay (+136)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +115.
I’m opting to go with a rare money line parlay for my second best bet on Saturday’s slate, and we’ll start in Seattle, where Washington should be able to get past Illinois at home. The Washington offense is one of the top 10 units in the sport (7th in success rate, 4th in quality drive rate, 5th in third down success rate), and I’m of the belief that Demond Williams Jr, Jonah Coleman, Denzel Boston and company should be able to generate success against an Illinois defense that is shockingly poor in the secondary (125th in passing success rate allowed, 117th in points per drive allowed). We know that the Illini struggled against the dynamic USC offense a few weeks ago, and while Washington doesn’t necessarily pose the same challenges as USC’s elite passing attack, this is still an offense that is as good as any when playing at home.
For our second leg, the Oklahoma Sooners are in great position to build on their victory against South Carolina a week ago and keep things rolling against an Ole Miss team that is probably a bit worse than its record to this point. Lane Kiffin’s side put up an admirable effort against Georgia a week ago, but the Rebels were ultimately shut down for the majority of the second half by Kirby Smart’s defense. Keep in mind that the Bulldogs defense is certainly a below average unit this season, so how will Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense function against arguably the best defense in the nation in Norman? Look for the Sooners defensive front to wreck the game right away and for John Mateer to get a lot more comfortable under center as he faces a miserable Ole Miss defense.
CFB best bet: Wake Forest +3.5 vs SMU Mustangs (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Wake Forest +3.
From a situational perspective, this is about as good of a spot as you can find on the Week 9 slate — and I intend to take advantage of it. On one side, Wake Forest comes into this game off a bye week in a spot where the Demon Deacons should be much healthier after they suffered a whole host of injuries a bit earlier in the season. Wake Forest has already shown to be a well-coached unit when coming off a bye week, as the Demon Deacons battled Georgia Tech as home underdogs tooth and nail en route to an overtime loss back on September 27.
Conversely, SMU is in a brutal letdown spot after knocking off Clemson on the road in what was clearly the biggest win of their season to this point. Now, Rhett Lashlee’s side will have to travel out east for the second straight week to take on Wake Forest, a team they couldn’t possibly care all that much about, all while staring at a massive home game against Miami on deck. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Mustangs come out flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s win against Clemson’s backup quarterback and struggling offense. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Wake Forest won this game outright, so I’ll certainly take the points with the Deacons here.
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