Week 9 NFL Line Movements

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Andrew Ortenberg

NFL

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I'm an NFL handicapper here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

By the time the games kickoff, NFL lines often look considerably different from where they opened. Sportsbooks frequently adjust lines throughout the week both to balance the action, and to adjust to sharp money coming in from respected bettors. Today, we’ll be taking a look at a few of the more significant week 9 NFL line movements from the games and what they mean.

CHI @ BUF

This line opened around 8.5, but quickly shot up to around ten where it currently stands. The line move was almost certainly due to the announcement that Nathan Peterman would start the game in place of an injured Derek Anderson. Peterman has been atrocious in his few regular season appearances, so oddsmakers moved quickly to adjust the lines accordingly. That being said, it’s possible that was an overreaction. Anderson has been pretty bad the past couple of weeks, and it’s not exactly clear that there’s much of a drop-off from Anderson to Peterman. I wouldn’t be surprised if people eventually realize there’s some value on Buffalo, and this line could trend back to single digits.

TB @ CAR

This line opened with the Panthers at around a touchdown favorite. That has since ticked down off the key number of seven, to six or a slightly juiced 6.5 depending on the shop. The Panthers are hot right now, but it’s unclear if their winning streak is legitimate. They haven’t faced the toughest schedule, and it took a record-breaking 63-yard field goal just for them to beat the Giants at home a couple weeks ago. Add in the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick, who’s played much better than Jameis Winston, was named the starter for this game and it makes since why this line has trended downward.

LAR @ NO

The total on this game has come crashing down. After opening as high as 60, the total currently sits at 56.5. Both teams have played in some shootouts, but both defenses appear to be rounding into form. The only time the Rams’ offense is slowed down is when their offensive line play lags, and the Saints have one of the best defensive fronts in the league. The Rams’ pass-rush has come alive the past couple of weeks as well, and Drew Brees always struggles with pressure up the middle. That’s a bad matchup considering the Rams have the best interior defensive line in the league with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh providing pressure right up the gut. Both teams’ defense can shut down what the opposing offense likes to do, so it makes sense why this total has come down.

GB @ NE

This Sunday Night Football matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should be one of the most heavily bet games of the season. This game opened six or 6.5 at some places, and now is around five across the board. The move likely has something to do with the uninspiring play of the Patriots on Monday night against the Bills. The total has also ticked down from an opener of 57.5 down to 56. Both sides have some injuries on offense, and the Packers defense appears to be making major strides in recent weeks as the secondary has gotten healthy. This total could continue to trend down depending on what the weather looks like on game day.

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