Sam Avellone
Friday night’s college football card is headlined by a lone power conference matchup in the Big 12 when the West Virginia Mountaineers travel out west for a date with the BYU Cougars under the lights at LaVell Edwards Stadium. It’s been a rough go in Rich Rod’s return to Morgantown, as the Mountaineers are riddled with injuries throughout the offense. It sounds like Rodriguez expects to be healthier across the offensive line and in the running back group this week, but starting QB Nico Marchiol remains out with a foot injury.
Can a battered West Virginia team be competitive after cross-country travel on a short week? Oddsmakers don’t think so, as West Virginia is currently catching nearly 3 touchdowns. I don’t have an angle on the side in this matchup, but I have a couple other angles I like and am combining them for a Friday night West Virginia vs BYU same game parlay. Here are my parlay picks for this Big 12 matchup, and don’t forget to check out the rest of our NCAAF picks for the upcoming Week 6 slate.
LJ Martin (BYU) 100+ rushing yards (-123)
LJ Martin (BYU) 2+ touchdowns (+225)
West Virginia alternate team total under 14.5 (-155)
West Virginia vs BYU same game parlay odds: +550
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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LJ Martin (BYU) 100+ rushing yards (-123)
LJ Martin has been one of the best running backs in the Big 12 this season, currently sitting near the top of the conference in rushing yards, total yards per attempt, yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and 10-yard runs. He has the 3rd-highest running grade of the qualified Big 12 running backs with at least 20 rush attempts (PFF), and he has just 3 fumbles on 300 carries throughout his collegiate career.
With BYU listed as nearly a 3-touchdown favorite, expect a heavy dose of BYU’s run game – spearheaded by Martin. Martin is the de facto leader of the BYU backfield, already registering 55 carries compared to just 17 for his backup Sione Moa. While Martin may not play the full 4 quarters due to a blowout, he still should eclipse the 100-yard mark. He’s already done so in 3 of 4 games despite not carrying the ball more than 18 times in any of them, and West Virginia is likely to struggle to bring him to the ground. The Mountaineers are abysmal in the tackling department, ranking 124 in PFF’s tackling grade, and sit outside the top 70 in explosiveness per rush outside of garbage time.
LJ Martin (BYU) 2+ touchdowns (+225)
Expecting a massive workload for Martin early in this game, I’m going to include him twice in this parlay. He’s way behind schedule as far as touchdowns go. In his previous 2 seasons at BYU, Martin scored a touchdown about every 19 touches, yet he has just 1 touchdown on 55 rush attempts and 6 receptions this season. That could regress back to the mean in a major way this week with BYU being a heavy home favorite on a short rest, playing against a defense that has surrendered a rushing touchdown against every FBS opponent it has faced.
Martin should find pay dirt at least once here, but I’m going to get a bit frisky and up it to 2+ touchdowns to boost the odds of our parlay by more than double the payout rather than just including 1+ touchdown – which is listed shorter than -200 on every sportsbook. Martin scored 2 touchdowns twice last year and twice in 2023, so he’s no stranger to hitting pay dirt more than once in a game. Again, this is the perfect spot against a perfect opponent to ride your running back to a win. Look for Martin to have a day against the Mountaineers.
West Virginia Mountaineers alternate team total under 14.5 (-155)
Without Marchiol, it’s very hard to trust this West Virginia offense against any opponent in any setting, much less a cross-country trip to play a stingy BYU defense on a short week in altitude. The Mountaineers have failed to surpass 14 points in each of their 3 losses, which is a trend I expect to continue against the Cougars. BYU not only boasts a top 20 defense by most key advanced metrics, but the Cougars play at a slow, deliberate pace while limiting giveaways. As such, West Virginia is unlikely to have very many possessions in this one. I don’t expect much from this offense in Provo.
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