After a long and eventful season, the college football regular season is over and conference championship weekend is here. Most of the conference title matchups this weekend have College Football Playoff implications, but this matchup between Miami (OH) and Western Michigan is simply a battle between rivals for the right to hoist the MAC championship trophy. Niether team was expected to be in this spot based on preseason projections, so this is a great opportunity for both programs to etch themselves into recent MAC lore with a victory on Saturday.
With kickoff set for 12:00 PM ET at Ford Field a MAC Championship Same Game Parlay is in order. Let’s get into our Miami Ohio vs Western Michigan picks, but don’t forget our NCAAF predictions for every Championship Week matchup.
Miami (OH) ML (+106)
Under 43.5 (-115)
Thomas Gotkowski (M-OH) under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-205)
Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) Same Game Parlay odds: +382
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Miami (OH) ML (+106)
To kick off our MAC title game SGP, let’s back Miami (OH) to reverse its fortunes from a season ago and capture its third MAC title in the last 7 seasons. The RedHawks were in a bit of disarray earlier this season, but they’ve bounced back nicely in recent weeks following the departure of quarterback Dequan Finn — who was a highly decorated transfer from Toledo and Baylor. While Finn’s absence was expected to sink Chuck Martin’s bunch, this team proved to be quite resilient, and that should continue into this title game. Martin’s feisty defense should feel confident against a Western Michigan team that really struggles to push the ball downfield (103rd in passing success rate) and finish drives (77th in points per drive). The RedHawks should do just enough to win this one as an underdog.
Check out our full Western Michigan vs Miami Ohio predictions for the MAC Championship game
Under 43.5 (-115)
My most confident projection in this game is that we won’t see many points. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me at all if this game finished in the 30s, even in a dome setting. The fact of the matter is neither of these offenses are any good through the air and both defenses are among the better units in the MAC. Western Michigan is a top 35-40 unit nationally in most advanced metrics and the RedHawks have historically been rock solid under Martin’s coaching. This is a situation where both teams should focus on running the ball and grinding out long drives that end in field goals. I’ll take the under for our second leg.
Thomas Gotkowski (M-OH) under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-205)
To close out our MAC title game SGP, let’s target Miami Ohio quarterback Thomas Gotkowski to throw fewer than 2 touchdowns on Saturday. As previously mentioned, this is a game that I expect to be dictated by both defenses, and there’s a real chance that neither team makes it to 20 points on Saturday. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting on Gotkowski to go under his passing touchdown prop, especially since it’ll add some value to our Same Game Parlay since it’s not naturally correlated with Miami Ohio picking up a win. Gotkowski only has 4 passing touchdowns in 3 games played this season, so let’s roll the dice and hope that trend continues.
Lock in our expert’s Championship Week best bets for Saturday’s slate
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