Ricky Dimon
The business end of Wimbledon is upon us, as Tuesday marks the beginning of quarterfinal competition. Among those looking for spots in the final 4 across the men’s and women’s singles draws are Aryna Sabalenka, Carlos Alcaraz, Amanda Anisimova and Taylor Fritz. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 9 schedule on Tuesday, July 8.
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Wimbledon best bet: Taylor Fritz -1.5 sets over Karen Khachanov (-146)
Fritz is looking like at least somewhat of a realistic Wimbledon title contender and keeping my hopes alive after I picked him at +5000 before the tournament. If not for the presence of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, it would be very realistic. The 5th-ranked American was dealt basically the most difficult possible draw in the first 2 rounds and defeated Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Gabriel Diallo, arguably the 2 most dangerous unseeded players on the entire entry list.
Fritz is an amazing 12-1 on grass this season and 22-3 on it dating back to the 2024 campaign, a stretch that includes back-to-back Eastbourne titles in addition to the Stuttgart trophy. Karen Khachanov is no pushover, but the Russian benefited from being in the weakest section of the draw where there were a ton of upsets. Khachanov simply isn’t on Fritz’s level and that should be proven today.
Wimbledon prediction: Cameron Norrie Over 0.5 service breaks vs Carlos Alcaraz (-150)
Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie have faced each other 6 times. In those 6 meetings, Norrie has broken serve on 18 occasions. He earned 6 breaks in their most recent encounter (2023 Rio de Janeiro), preceded by 1, 3, 2, 4 and 2. That’s right; in all 6 of their matches, the Brit has broken at least once every time.
They have never squared off on grass and it is true that this is the surface on which it is toughest to break, but the lawn shouldn’t entirely prevent Norrie from doing some damage with his return. It hasn’t so far this fortnight. Through 4 rounds, the former TCU Horned Frog has earned 4, 5, 6 and 2 service breaks. The smallest number came against Nicolas Jarry, which is understandable since Jarry is among the biggest servers on tour. Asking Norrie to simply break Alcaraz once should not be too much.
Wimbledon pick: Amanda Anisimova -0.5 aces vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-120)
Anisimova leads the head-to-head series with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 3-0 and has won 6 of their 7 total sets. Much of that has to do with the American winning a lot more free points on her serve compared to her opponent. In those 3 previous meetings, Anisimova fired 24 aces to Pavlyuchenkova’s 8. Yes, 3 times as many. Through 4 rounds, Anisimova has racked up 15 aces to Pavlyuchenkova’s 14. That equates to 0.33 per game for AA and 0.29 for the Russian. Although that margin is small, it can add up over the course of a match. And regardless of that, the head-to-head numbers are more important. The soon-to-be top-10 player should have no trouble winning the ace count by at least 1.
