Ricky Dimon
After the women’s semifinals held court on Thursday, the men are taking center stage on Friday. It’s Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz followed by Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic. I see no value on the Sinner vs Djokovic match, mainly because of the Italian’s potential elbow issue. There is no point in backing him as a considerable favorite, but I also don’t think Djokovic is going to win – at least not if Sinner is close to 100 percent. Fortunately, there are plenty of intriguing options in the Alcaraz vs Fritz markets. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 12 schedule.
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Wimbledon best bet: Taylor Fritz +2.5 sets over Carlos Alcaraz (-163)
At the start of the tournament, I picked both Sinner and Fritz as my Wimbledon men’s singles best bets, and I’m keeping some faith in Fritz. This probably wouldn’t be the case on clay and maybe not even on a hard court, but on grass, Fritz can be competitive with Alcaraz. The world #5 owns a 43-14 match record on grass dating back to 2019, a 23-3 mark over the past 2 seasons and an amazing 13-1 record this summer. Fritz’s 2025 grass-court swing is highlighted by titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne (his 4th at the latter tournament). Half of his 10 ATP titles have come on the green stuff. Alcaraz is playing well, but he hasn’t been entirely dominant so far at the All-England Club. If Fabio Fognini (2 sets), Jan-Lennard Struff (1) and Andrey Rublev (1) can take sets off the Spaniard, so can Fritz.
Wimbledon prediction: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Over 37.5 games (-112)
By nature, grass-court matches are more competitive and therefore longer since it’s easier to hold serve and tiebreakers are plentiful. Margins are smaller, generally. This match should be no exception. The way Fritz is playing suggests that this semifinal showdown could be a lot more intriguing than the odds would indicate. Fritz’s run in London features wins over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Gabriel Diallo and Karen Khachanov – all dangerous grass-court players. All of those matches exceeded the 37.5-game quota for Alcaraz vs Fritz.
The world #2 comfortably exceeded this number against both Fognini and Rublev. He didn’t come close to it against Cameron Norrie in the quarterfinals, but Fritz is on an entirely different level from Norrie. At the same time, of course, Fritz obviously isn’t going to crush Alcaraz. The Spaniard is on a 23-match winning streak, which includes a 2nd straight Roland Garros title and a 10-0 record on grass. This projects to be a fantastic match between 2 in-form players.
Wimbledon pick: Carlos Alcaraz +3.5 aces vs Taylor Fritz (-110)
In 2 head-to-head meetings, Fritz has 11 aces to Alcaraz’s to 7. However, it was 7 to 1 in Fritz’s favor last summer at the Laver Cup, a borderline exhibition event. In their only real encounter, Alcaraz blasted 6 aces to Fritz’s 4 at the 2023 Miami Masters 1000. Fritz has accrued a lot more aces than Alcaraz so far in these Championships, but it must be noted that he faced unspectacular returners in Mpetshi Perricard, Diallo and Khachanov. Alcaraz is an entirely different test. The #2 seed ranks 2nd among ATP top-50 players in percentage of return points getting aced over the last 52 weeks (4.7 percent). By comparison, in the same time span, Fritz is getting aced on 9.5 percent of his return points. Count on Alcaraz staying within 3 aces of his opponent.
