Ricky Dimon
Wednesday marks the conclusion of quarterfinal competition at the Wimbledon Championships. When play ends, the final 4 will be set in both the men’s and women’s singles draws. Among those looking to join Aryna Sabalenka and Carlos Alcaraz in the semis are Iga Swiatek, Mirra Andreeva, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 10 schedule.
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Wimbledon best bet: Ben Shelton Over 0.5 sets won vs Jannik Sinner (-225)
Will Sinner be 100 percent for this quarterfinal collision? That remains to be seen. The Italian fell and sustained an apparent elbow injury in the first game of his match against Grigor Dimitrov and was getting smoked 6-3, 7-5, 2-2 when it suddenly ended because of Dimitrov’s own – and apparently serious – injury. I don’t care how well Dimitrov was playing; Sinner would not be losing in such lopsided fashion if he weren’t a shadow of his real self. Yes, the world #1 could be miraculously recovered by Wednesday – but even if he is, Shelton should at least take 1 set.
These 2 squared off at this same event last summer (4th round) when Shelton had a set point on his own serve in the 3rd before falling 11-9 in a tiebreaker. The overall head-to-head series stands at 5-1 in Sinner’s favor, but Shelton has forced a tiebreaker in all 5 of his losses – so it’s not as if he is getting wiped off the court. Most importantly, Sinner will likely be less than 100 percent because of the aforementioned elbow problem. Shelton has intriguing value on the money line, too, but there is a chance that Sinner retires (which would void ML bets at most sportsbooks). Getting a potential quick cash – YRFI/NRFI style – is the way to play this match.
Wimbledon prediction: Flavio Cobolli Over 6.5 aces vs Novak Djokovic (-120)
Flavio Cobolli’s serve has been absolutely on fire this fortnight. He has held, wait for it, 62 of 64 service games (97 percent). Yes, the Italian has been broken only twice through 4 rounds. Cobolli’s ace totals are 11, 2, 9 and 11 — exceeding this 6.5 number with room to spare in 3 of 4 matches. Now he faces Djokovic, and that will force the underdog to be aggressive on serve because he doesn’t want to get into too many baseline rallies. The majority of those won’t end well for Cobolli, so count on him going big with his first serve. That will naturally lead to more aces. Moreover, Djokovic is getting aced a fair amount. The 38-year-old Serb has seen the ball go by him on 8.1 percent of points over the past 52 weeks; the average for players in the top 50 is 7.5 percent.
Wimbledon pick: Iga Swiatek vs Liudmila Samsonova Under 21.5 games (-110)
Short matches are nothing out of the ordinary for either player. Swiatek is famous for emphatically beating down opponents, issuing bagels (6-0) and breadsticks (6-1) left and right. Liudmila Samsonova is frequently on both sides of the blowout spectrum. When the current world #19 is firing on all cylinders, her tennis can be top-5 material; when she is off her game, she can lose decisively to opponents outside the top 100.
So far this fortnight, Samsonova has played 4 straight-set matches without even being extended to a single tiebreaker. 3 of the 4 have resulted in 17 games or fewer. 3 of Swiatek’s 4 rounds have featured no more than 19 games. The Pole surrendered 1 set to Caty McNally but then dominated the next 2 by scorelines of 6-2 and 6-1. As for the head-to-head series between these 2 women, Swiatek leads 4-0 and her last 3 wins have been straight-set affairs with 17 games or fewer. The 5-time major champion has taken 8 sets in a row against Samsonova without going to a single tiebreaker.
