The 2026 World Baseball Classic ends on Tuesday night at loanDepot Park in Miami, as Venezuela and USA play in the championship game. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET, and the game will air live on FOX. Let’s get into our World Baseball Classic best bets for today, March 17, targeting Venezuela vs USA.
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World Baseball Classic best bet: Venezuela +2.5 over USA (-140)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
When the 2026 World Baseball Classic started, the United States (-110) was near even-money to win the championship. Japan (+380), the defending champion, had the 2nd -shortest odds, with the Dominican Republic (+390) close behind. Not many noticed Venezuela (+900), with the 4th-shortest odds, but it has qualified for its first-ever WBC championship game.
Venezuela finished 2nd in Pool D behind the Dominican Republic, who was defeated by Team USA 2-1 in the semifinals. And, speaking of surprises, Italy (+7500) entered the tournament with very long odds, but Squadra Azzurra made quite the run in the WBC, taking Venezuela to the mat before finally succumbing. Venezuela trailed 2-0 at one point on Monday, and it trailed 2-1 after 6 innings, before Venezuela picked up 3 runs in the top of the 7th inning for the 4-2 victory.
If you enjoy baseball, and you have yet to tune into the World Baseball Classic for some reason, you’ve missed some electric crowds, and some really good baseball. Some might argue that the quality of baseball in this tournament has been better than a majority of the baseball we’ll see from some Major League Baseball teams in the upcoming 2026 regular season.
For Venezuela, Eugenio Suarez had the only home run of the semifinals, cutting the Italy lead to 2-1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Luis Arraez and Maikel Garcia each drove in runs in the 7th inning, as Venezuela flipped the script and took a 4-2 lead. Italy’s Michael Lorenzen, who had baffled Team USA last week, coughed up 3 runs, 4 hits and 2 walks in just 2.2 IP for the relief loss. He managed to throw just 26 of his 46 pitches for strikes, too.
Venezuela didn’t get a great starting effort from Keider Montero, who allowed 2 runs, 2 hits and 3 walks with just 1 strikeout in 1.1 IP in his start on Monday. But the bullpen certainly did its job, allowing only 3 hits and 2 walks with 8 strikeouts across 7.2 IP of relief.
USA picked up a 2-1 win over the Dominican Republic in Sunday’s other semifinal, and it gets an extra day of rest. That is going to make a huge difference, as Venezuela is forced to play back-to-back days for a championship. Paul Skenes allowed a run while scattering 6 hits with no walks in 4.1 IP, throwing 50 of his 71 pitches for strikes, as he moved to 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in this WBC.
The Americans didn’t have many offensive heroes, but OF Roman Anthony and 3B Gunnar Henderson each swatted solo home runs to provide the only offense the home side needed. 1B Bryce Harper had a double in 4 at-bats, too, as he had a much-needed extra-base hit, although he is still hitting just .167. Cal Raleigh was benched in favor of Will Smith, who delivered a single in 4 at-bats to push his average to .300. The Americans won without its bottom of the order, as Brice Turang and Pete Crow-Armstrong were a combined 0-for-7 with 3 strikeouts. Those 2 have been unexpectedly carrying the Americans for most of the tournament.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has been tabbed as the starter for Venezuela in the title game. He allowed 3 runs, 3 hits and a walk with 2 homers and five strikeouts in just 2.2 IP in a loss to the Dominican Republic on March 11. RHP Nolan McLean will make his 2nd start for USA. He allowed 3 runs, 2 hits and 2 walks with 2 homers and 4 strikeouts across 3 innings in the loss to Italy in Houston last Tuesday. Let’s take Venezuela catching the 2.5 runs here, as we should get a 4-2 or 5-3 type game.
World Baseball Classic best bet: Venezuela vs USA Under 8.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing
For the total, we should see nerves on both sides, even with a majority of MLB players for Venezuela, and an All-Star-like team for USA. These players will still be full of emotion representing their respective countries, and it will be an electric atmosphere in Miami, a rarity for baseball in South Florida. Look for a slow start to this game, in terms of offense, before the teams settle in and decide a winner late.
The Venezuelan fans will bring the energy, music and fun, making it seem like a parade. They’re unlikely to have a lot of offense to cheer about, but we’ll likely see a lot of good pitching and defense. A total of 8.5 runs seems awfully high, and coupling that with Venezuela catching 2.5 runs makes for a really good same-game parlay (SGP) in this final WBC game.
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