The 2026 World Baseball Classic is underway. If you’re a real sports junkie, you likely watched the Australia-Czechia game online from Tokyo Dome like I did on Thursday night. But, if you’re a casual fan, you’re only looking to watch the top nations. We have the tournament favorite in action for the first time in Pool B play at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, normally the home of the Astros of Major League Baseball. It is going to be an uphill climb for Brazil, and it might even be a miracle if it can keep Game 1 close. Let’s get into our World Baseball Classic best bets for Friday, March 6, targeting USA vs Brazil and Dominican Republic vs Nicaragua.
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World Baseball Classic best bet: USA vs Brazil under 14.5 (+108)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing
The United States looks to not only be championship caliber, but, really, it appears to be unbeatable. The 2 All-Star Game starters from 2025, Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes and Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal, are part of the starting staff for USA. In fact, Skubal is scheduled to start against Great Britain on Saturday, with Skenes working against Mexico on Monday.
For Game 1, San Francisco Giants RHP Logan Webb gets the nod, and remember, in WBC play, pitchers are limited to 65 pitches, so expect to see plenty of pitching changes. USA has 16 pitchers on the staff, and everyone should get their feet wet in the first 4 games of pool play.
The Brazilians will counter with RHP Bo Takahashi, a former farmhand with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds. He reached Triple-A with the Reds organization in 2021, his only season at the level, going 3-7 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.28 WHIP across 89 IP in 17 starts and one relief appearance with the Louisville Bats. He now plies his trade with the Saitama Seibu Lions of the Nippon Professional League in Japan.
Can we count on Takahashi holding down this All-Star caliber lineup? It likely isn’t going to end terribly well, but remember that USA got off to a slow start in the 2023 installment, winning just 6-2 in the opener against Great Britain, while losing outright to Mexico in Game 2. Brazil shouldn’t hang its hat on that, but it does have Major Leaguer Bo Bichette, and also a red-hot Leonardo Reginatto, who was impressive in the Classic Qualifiers. Lucas Ramirez plays for Brazil, too, and he is the son of former Major Leaguer Manny Ramirez. So, those are a couple of things to watch for the Brazil side.
It would be foolish to bet against the USA. Betting lightly on Brazil catching 9.5 runs is worth a look, but don’t get carried away. The best bet is to take under 14.5 total runs. The Americans should get plenty of runs, but the Brazilians aren’t likely to pile up the offense against a star-studded pitching staff. If Brazil plates 2 or more runs, that would be stunning. Also, while Webb will be limited to that 65-pitch cap, him getting 5+ strikeouts looks like a solid prop play at -132.
World Baseball Classic best bet: Dominican Republic -4.5 over Nicaragua (-122)
Odds courtesy of bet365 and available at time of publishing.
At 7:00 pm ET at loanDepot Park in Miami in Pool D play, group favorite Dominican Republic takes on Nicaragua. The DR tuned up against the Detroit Tigers in Florida on Monday, and the teams played to a 4-4 tie in the exhibition game.
The Dominican roster is fantastic, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ketel Marte, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Junior Caminero and Julio Rodriguez comprising the first 7 batters of the lineup. That is an offense which can hang with almost anybody.
For Nicaragua, casual fans will recognize a few names, with pitcher Erasmo Ramirez, as well as infielders Cheslor Cuthbert and Mark Vientos. Manager Dusty Baker has an uphill climb to get his team into the win column in a group which also includes Israel, Netherlands and Venezuela. Let’s back the Dominicans to get the job done by 5 or more runs.
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