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The 2026 World Baseball Classic continues Monday, and it should be a wild scene at Daikin Park in Houston for a Pool B battle between championship-favorite USA and Mexico. It was a raucous scene in Houston on Sunday night for Mexico’s rout of Brazil. These teams are vying for first place in Pool B.
Let’s get into our World Baseball Classic best bets for Monday, March 9, targeting USA vs Mexico.
World Baseball Classic best bet: USA vs Mexico Under 11.5 (-124)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing
The United States (2-0) and Mexico (2-0) meet in a showdown in Houston, with the top spot in Pool B on the line.
For the USA, Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes takes the ball for the first time. Remember, pitchers are limited to 65 pitches in pool play, but even if Skenes is limited to, say, four or five innings tops, the bullpen isn’t exactly a wasteland for manager Mark DeRosa. This is a Dream Team, and Mexico will have trouble plating runs.
USA opened this tournament with a sluggish 15-5 win over Brazil. The score isn’t indicative of how close the game was, as USA led just 8-5 heading to the ninth inning before breaking it open. On Saturday, USA roughed up Great Britain 9-1 with Tarik Skubal on the bump. It was a preview of things to come, as some of these teams are going to have trouble catching up to all-star caliber pitchers for the Americans.
As far as Mexico is concerned, it opened this tournament with an 8-2 win over Great Britain. However, it was tied 2-2 heading to the eighth inning before Mexico erupted for 6 against the English ‘pen. Nacho Alvarez and Jonathan Aranda had homers against GBR. In Sunday’s game, Mexico paddled Brazil 16-0 in a shortened game due to mercy rule. Mexico had 5 different players leave the yard, including Alejandro Kirk with a 3-run HR in the fourth inning. Alek Thomas went 3-for-3 with a 2-run shot, a walk, two runs scored and three RBI, too.
While the Mexico offense is good for 22 runs in the past 8 innings, it won’t have nearly that kind of success against Skenes. And, when he exits, the American bullpen should still handle its business.
Still, Mexico has had spurts of power, and it could use the long ball to hang around. The spread of 3.5 runs is too tough to call, believe it or not. Instead, let’s go Under 11.5 total runs — as Skenes should start off with plenty of donuts early on.
World Baseball Classic best bet: First 5 Innings – Under 6.5 (-122)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at time of publishing
A better play than the overall total might be the F5 run total for this crucial matchup. We should see a playoff-like atmosphere with Skenes on the hill trying to mow down Mexico. It was a loud, festive atmosphere in Sunday’s 16-0 win over Brazil for Mexico — but don’t expect to see the bats nearly as productive against Skenes and the American pitching staff.
USA has a plus-18 run differential so far, while Mexico has a plus-22. However, don’t let that give you pause in the first 5 innings here. Both of these teams have done a majority of their damage against Brazil. Against each other, with a big step up in competition, we should see plenty of early zeros.
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