The 2026 World Baseball Classic wraps up the semifinal round on Monday, as Venezuela and Italy lock horns at loanDepot Park in Miami at 8 pm ET. The game can be viewed or streamed on FOX Sports 1 (FS1), with the winner set to meet the USA in Tuesday’s final. Let’s get into our World Baseball Classic best bets for today, March 16, targeting Venezuela vs Italy.
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World Baseball Classic best bet: Venezuela vs Italy – Under 10.5 (-128)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
It’s not the matchup we expected, but it’s shaping up to be a very exciting semifinal when Pool D runner-up Venezuela meets Pool B winner Italy. With the game in Miami, the crowd is expected to be decisively in favor of “Tri Colores”, as there is a Venezuelan community in South Florida. The baseball-mad country has rabid fans, and they packed loanDepot Park in Miami better than the MLB’s Marlins ever have for their quarterfinal victory over Japan.
Venezuela has a powerful offense which collected 10 hits against the 2023 WBC champion Japan, ousting the champs with an 8-5 win. Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr., Kansas City Royals 3B Maikel Garcia and Boston Red Sox OF Wilyer Abreu each swatted homers in the victory. Colorado Rockies SS Ezequiel Tovar had a giant game, going 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles, 3 runs scored and a stolen base, while Detroit Tigers 2B Gleyber Torres was 2-for-4 with a double, run scored and RBI, but he is still hitting just .182 in this WBC.
Venezuela was able to advance despite the fact San Francisco Giants IF Luis Arraez was hitless in 5 at-bats, although he is still slashing a very impressive .368/.409/.895 in this tournament. DH Eugenio Suarez was hitless in 4 at-bats, too, as the No. 3 and 4 hitters were a combined 0-for-9 with 3 strikeouts. That speaks to the surprising depth of this Venezuela squad which had, perhaps, flown a bit under the radar until its win over Japan.
Italy won Pool B, going 4-0, and it shocked USA 8-6, putting the Americans on the ropes. With Italy’s win over Mexico, it helped USA advance to the quarterfinals, and it has since moved on to the title game, awaiting the winner of this one. We could get a Pool B rematch. But, first things first. Italy saw 8 of its 9 starters collect a hit in the win against Puerto Rico, as it takes a village, and Squadra Azzurri continues to find a way by banding together. The big blow for Italy was C J.J. D’Orazio, who had a 2-run ground-rule double against Puerto Rico. And, he was born in Maracay, Venezuela, so that adds a little extra incentive or interest for him.
Kansas City Royals 1B Vinnie Pasquantino was 1-for-3 with a pair of walks, 2 runs scored and an RBI, and Royals OF Jac Caglianone was 1-for-3 with a walk, run scored and RBI, his 4th of the tournament. The Italians were trouble on the base paths, too, swiping 5 bases, including 2 by Pasquantino.
In the first end of our bet, let’s take the Under. That’s the best play here. We shouldn’t get to double digits, and pitchers will likely be given very little room for error. At the first sign of trouble, Venezuelan skipper Omar Lopez or Italian manager Francisco Cervelli will likely make a call to the bullpen.
World Baseball Classic best bet: Venezuela -1.5 over Italy (-128)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing
The difference between these 2 teams will be the reason to back Venezuela. Italy plays a lot more station-to-station baseball, depending a little more on baserunning and speed. For Venezuela, it has a little more pop in the lineup, and that can change the game in the blink of an eye and one swing of the bat.
I’ll take a team with power over a speedy team any day of the week. Yes, it can be a little more boom-or-bust, and we certainly can’t have Arraez and Suarez struggling in the middle of the order against Italy, if this bet is to come in. But I think this is a high-octane Venezuela offense that will set up an exciting matchup and festive atmosphere for a USA vs Venezuela battle on Tuesday night.
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