World Baseball Classic Sunday Best Bets: Today’s Picks, Odds & Predictions

Joe Williams

Show Bio

College basketball and MLB expert for Pickswise with 10+ years of handicapping experience. For Joe Williams media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

@WinWithJoe

World Baseball Classic best bet: USA vs Dominican Republic – Under 4.5 – First 5 Innings (+106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing

The United States may be the host, but in Miami, it will be a raucous crowd that sounds more like Punta Cana or Santo Domingo at times. Break out the La Bandera, Sancocho, Mofongo, Tostones and Mamajuana, as it is going to be a party.

The USA slinked into the quarterfinal round after a stunning loss to Italy in Pool B play. The Americans actually needed the Italians to beat Mexico, which they did, to advance. The fate of the American Pastime was up to Italy. What a long, strange trip this World Baseball Classic this has been.

The United States met old friend Canada in the quarterfinals and fired out to a 5-0 lead through the top of the 6th inning. All appeared to be well until Canada rallied for 3 runs, and that old dark feeling returned — if only for a moment. USA’s bullpen shut down the Maple Leafs for the remainder of the game, and that’s how things finished up, with USA winning 5-3. However, this USA team was pushed to the limit yet again by a team not exactly considered a baseball superpower. Now, USA gets a legit superpower in the Dominicans.

Look at the lineup for the DR; it is a who’s who of baseball. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads off, with Ketel Marte, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Machado, Junior Caminero, Julio Rodriguez, Austin Wells and Geraldo Perdomo all batting behind him. Oneil Cruz is a bench player for this team, as is veteran Carlos Santana. The offense is deep, and it will push RHP Paul Skenes on Sunday.

However, with Skenes on the hill for the Americans, and RHP Luis Severino on the bump for the Dominicans, our best bet is to go under for the first 5 innings, especially at plus-money. That seems like a gift, or a ‘regalo’, if you like.

For Team USA, the offense hasn’t exactly been hitting on all cylinders, and that’s concerning heading into this one. For instance, Bryce Harper is hitting just .150, and Alex Bregman is under the Mendoza line at .182. Cal Raleigh has yet to deliver a hit in the WBC, posting the same average as you or me. If not for the heroics of Brice Turang (.467/.500/.733) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.357/.438/.857) in the the 8 and 9 spots of manager Mark DeRosa’s lineup, things might have broken another way for USA. They barely escaped pool play, and have been playing with fire all tournament long.

We’re waiting for the breakout. We’re waiting for the American power machine to finally come online in time. If not, it will be the Dominicans moving on to face the winner of Venezuela and Italy in the other semifinal. The path is laid out for a World Baseball Classic title, and some might consider Sunday’s game the unofficial championship.

World Baseball Classic best bet: Dominican Republic +1.5 (-150) over USA

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing

The Dominican Republic smashed (South) Korea 10-0 in the quarterfinals, mercy-ruling Gangnam Style back to Buson and Seoul. We touched on how powerful this DR offense is from top to bottom. If it were anybody but Skenes on the hill, we’d moneyline this pick for an extra value. However, Skenes is a bad man!

The Dominican Republic is worth playing if you a bit of a conservative bettor, and you still want some action. Heck, if you’re an American fan and see a close game, you can still get the best of both worlds here with a 1-run USA win.

I really have been impressed by the Dominicans, more so than USA. The roster the DR has constructed is rock-solid, and the USA team has been sucking wind — looking overpaid while underproducing. I hope that the Americans wake up before it’s too late. But, if not, let’s make some money off the sadness.