Two weeks into the season, it looked like the Pittsburgh Steelers were bound to be the NFL's worst offense by a wide margin. Of course, two weeks is barely a large enough sample size to make such assumptions, but it was bad – 499 total yards and 31 first downs in two games (and just 5-25 on third-down conversions). Aaron Rodgers looked completely out-of-sync with his receivers, their running game was abysmal (149 yards in two games), and they weren’t effectively protecting their aging, future Hall-of-Fame QB, who took six sacks.
Then Week 3 happened. Seemingly out of nowhere, Rodgers and the offense woke up. Earning 411 total yards with an air attack that produced 8.3 yards per pass, the Steelers put up 30 on a Bengals’ defense that looked greatly improved heading into Week 3. Even more impressive, Jaylen Warren ran it 17 times for a whopping 127 yards, good for 7.5 yards per rush. An effective run game is an essential for Rodgers, who can’t create like he used to.
The Steelers’ defense is rarely the issue. They’re already top-10 in points allowed (20.0 per game) and household names are all over their roster. In Week 3 they were less stellar, though, allowing plenty of yardage (352) and production (27 points). Either way, normally they wouldn’t be concerned at all before a battle against the Browns’ offense.
If you're a Steelers fan, you better hope they take the Browns seriously this time. In two consecutive weeks, Deshaun Watson looks more like the steady quarterback we watched years ago with the Texans. Saying all the right things after their victory against the Panthers, Watson has been very steady on and off the field, producing 382 passing yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Browns’ last two games - both wins. Watson also owns a top-11 completion percentage (68.3%). Cleveland’s rushing attack hasn’t been particularly effective in general, but last week they popped, too, gaining 132 yards as a unit.
Like the Steelers, the Browns’ defense is rarely a problem. Especially at home, Cleveland’s defense has had plenty of success over the past few seasons. This season, DT Mason Graham is clearly making a leap, too, which surely helps following the departure of Myles Garrett. Graham already has four sacks, tied for second in the NFL. Also like Pittsburgh, stalwart names like Denzel Ward and newcomer Jared Verse lead a group that can still cause plenty of havoc.
In every way, this feels like an old-fashioned AFC North matchup with two quarterbacks still working through some kinks and two defenses anchored by stars. That means the underdog, especially at home, has plenty of value.
Steelers vs Browns best bet: Browns +2.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5 (-110).
