NHL Picks & NHL Predictions

The New York Islanders have started the season 2-1, with their only loss coming in a game without starting goaltender Semyon Varlamov. With Varlamov back in net, the Islanders will likely have no problem taking down the New Jersey Devils. There’s a ton of value in the -1.5 line, as the Islanders are going up against an inferior Devils team. Anders Lee has led the way for the Islanders offense, leading the team in goals with two so far this season. The Islanders got off to a hot start this season by scoring four goals in their season opener against the Rangers. A similar performance should be expected on Thursday, when they try to pick up points against an East Division foe.

The Devils are coming off a hard-fought win over the Rangers thanks to a three-goal second period. Unfortunately for Devils fans, their team won’t be going up against a young, inexperienced goalie in this matchup. Their failure to convert on power-play opportunities (10 percent conversion rate) could really hurt in this one. They have also struggled on the penalty kill so far this season, giving up four goals on only 13 opportunities. The Islanders are a very talented team and will take advantage of New Jersey penalties. Look for the Islanders to win this one and perhaps get an empty-net goal to cash the puck line.

The Islanders are 0-3 against the over so far this season, combining for just one goal in their last two games. Varlamov has started the season 2-0 with two shutouts and should have no problem containing a Devils team that has a 1.7 xGF (goals expected in 5-on-5) this season. The Islanders have posted a disappointing 0.8 xGF, as they have only scored three goals in 5-on-5 situations this season. This bodes well for the under considering how good New Jersey has been at defending in these situations, only allowing one goal at even strength. The Devils will struggle to find the back of the net against Varlamov to keep this total under 5.5.

With so many back-to-back games in the NHL season so far, it is odd to see that the Lightning have not played in six days. They are 2-0 with both wins coming by more than a margin of -1.5 against the struggling Blackhawks. Tampa Bay has picked up right where it left off after their Stanley Cup win despite missing former Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov, who is out for the season with an injury. The Bolts have scored 10 goals for and allowed only three in the first two games, as Andrei Vasilevskiy has shown he is an elite goaltender with a .950 save percentage. The Lightning’s top line has been the driving force with captain Steven Stamkos leading the way with five points, while his linemates Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat each have three points.

Columbus did not start the season the way it wanted, as star player Pierre-Luc Dubois requested a trade but agreed to keep playing in the meantime. He has registered only one point in four games. As head coach John Tortorella tries to figure out what his team will look like, third line center Aexander Texier is their leading scorer and offseason acquisition Max Domi has only one point. On Tuesday against Detroit, the Blue Jackets battled back to tie it up late before losing in overtime…but that was against a Red Wings team that is destined for last place in the division. Take the Lightning.

Only one of the Blue Jackets’ four games this season has gone over the game total number, but this is a Columbus team that should be scoring more. Eight goals on the season and 0-for-7 on the power play is not going to make Tortorella happy. But worse than that is their star defenseman who are making a ton of money are not playing up to their ability. Seth Jones is -5 with no points and linemate Zach Werenski is -4 with no points. In contrast, the Lightning are showing their depth on the back end as Mikhail Sergachev is starting to show why he will be an elite defenseman in the NHL for a long time; he already has two goals this season and is an amazing +5. Add in Conn Smythe winner Victor Hedman–who has two points on the power play–as the quarterback of their top unit and I can only see Tampa Bay filling up the net in all situations on Thursday. Take the over.

The start to the Bruins season has been a polarizing one. On Sunday the Bruins were able to hold the Islanders to just 17 shots on net, but still lost the game 1-0. The new faces on the Bruins blueline have been spectacular! They rank fourth in team defense allowing just 1.67 goals against per game and haven’t allowed a single power play goal against all year. (So much for missing Zdeno Chara!) 

 Offensively, however, the Bruins are in desperate need of their reigning Rocket-Richard trophy winner, David Pastrnak. Boston has only scored three goals this season, none of which came at even strength! However, a deeper look into the Bruins offensive misfortunes shows that the Bruins have generated a significant number of expected goals but have been snake-bit by some stellar goaltending. Luckily for the Bruins the Flyers have been one of the weakest teams in the league defensively five on five. Philadelphia has allowed five goals or more in three of its four matches so far this year. Things will only get more challenging for them to defend as they will be without the reigning Selke Winner, Sean Couturier. Expect to see a hungry Bruins team eager to take advantage of this weaker-defensive Flyers squad.  The Bruins will also be playing their first game at home this season which should provide some extra confidence.  Take the Bruins to win a close one as they finally breakout for some well-deserved goals.

The Bruins faced lots of scrutiny for letting go of veteran-defensemen Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug this offseason. Thankfully for Bruins’ General Manager Don Sweeney, the stellar play of the young replacement players has silenced all the critics.  The Bruins allowed just four regulation goals against over their first three games. Not only are they a perfect 13 for 13 on the penalty kill, but they also scored a short-handed goal making them the only team in the league with a +1 goal differential shorthanded. Although the Flyers have been scoring at an above average rate, they have done so vs less-than-average goaltending. Whether Boston goes with Tuukka Rask or Jaroslav Halak in net this will easily be the best goaltender they have faced this season. Take the under as it will be hard for either team to score more than three goals in this one.

The Jets and Senators meet again on Thursday night in Ottawa. Winnipeg battled back after going down 3-1 in the previous meeting on Tuesday and managed to pull off a surprising comeback victory in OT. Both of these teams have looked pretty even in terms of offensive production, so the advantage on Thursday could be in net for the Jets. Last season, Connor Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goalie. He currently has a 2.50 goals-against average and .921 save percentage. And since Laurent Brossoit–Winnipeg’s backup goalie–got the win against the Senators on Tuesday night, Hellebuyck should be well-rested heading into this one. The Sens also have only managed 21.5 shots on net per game, that’s good for second-to-last in the league. With not many chances against one of the best goaltenders in the league, it doesn’t sound like a recipe for success.

The Jets’ offense, on the other hand, has managed 31 shots on goal per game. Going up against Matt Murray, who’s had all three starts for the Senators, could play in Winnipeg’s favor. Kyle Connor on the Jets is in rare company right now. He joins a small list of six active players to have scored in each of their teams’ first three games of a season multiple times. He solved Murray once on Tuesday night, so he might be expecting to extend that streak to four games in this one. Winnipeg might have the edge after their huge comeback win earlier this week and because Helleybuyck is in the net. Taking them on the money line is the way to go.

This game could play similar to Tuesday night and should be tightly contested for a full 60 minutes. The North Division hasn’t been as high scoring as previously anticipated. So, with a Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender on the Jets and two-time Stanley cup champion in net for the Sens, the under seems like a good call in this one. Yes, the last game between these teams hit the over, but that was with Winnipeg’s backup in net and Murray had his worst statistical games of the season with a .857 save percentage. The Jets are struggling to score goals (2.5 per game right now). Oddsmakers might be focused the Jets’ lethal players and Ottawa’s record last season when making these lines. With the grind-it-out style of play the Senators employ, this second matchup shouldn’t be as high scoring.

After an exciting matchup last night that ended in a shootout win for the Canucks, the Canadiens look to even the series on Thursday night. In what’s sure to be another hard-fought battle, the Canadiens will need to limit their penalties after giving Vancouver six power play opportunities last night. Montreal was able to score on 100% of their power play opportunities last night but unfortunately were only given the lone chance. Tyler Toffoli led the offense last night by scoring three of their five goals. Coming into last night, Cary Price was 7-0-1 in his last eight starts against the Canucks. He’ll bounce back tonight and help the Canadiens get back in the win column.

Vancouver was able to snap a three-game losing streak to move out of last place in the North Division. After starting the season 0/15 on power play opportunities, the Canucks were finally able to capitalize on the power play scoring three goals on only six chances. That was very uncharacteristic of the Canadiens, who had only allowed two power play goals with an 85.7% PK this season. That shouldn’t be expected again in this one and Montreal will remain at the top of the North Division by grabbing two points tonight.

Vancouver made drastic changes on Wednesday night by only allowing one power play opportunity. They had allowed 20 power play opportunities in just four games leading up to their first showdown against the Canadiens. Expect the Canadiens to follow suit and clean up their undisciplined play that produced six minor penalties last night. By eliminating penalties, that’ll allow Montreal to take advantage of their experienced netminder who has a great history against the Canucks. With both teams putting an emphasis on defense and eliminating penalties this meeting will look much different than the first. J.T Miller and Bo Horvat took advantage of the Montreal penalties last night but will struggle at full strength in this one. Wednesday’s matchup was an off night for Montreal and has gifted us with an inflated game total of 6.5. Take advantage of this by betting the under.

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This is a rematch of Tuesday night’s game where Colorado controlled much of it until the third period. The Kings were able to score two third period goals, but ended up falling short, with a final score of 3-2. The Avalanche were held to just 24 shots by the Kings, which is well short of their 32.2 shots per game pace of last season. Although they won the game, this is a Kings team that the Avalanche should be able to dominate with ease. The Avalanche have had no issue scoring goals so far this season, however, the only issue is a large majority of them have come on the powerplay. They have just four even-strength goals in three games. For a lineup as deep as they are, this is very poor. If this team is going to make a Stanley cup run like they are primed to do, they need to be able to produce both 5-on-5 and on the powerplay.

This LA Kings team is going through a rebuild and they are showing the signs of it. In their first three games, they have squandered two late third period leads and headed into the other third period trailing 3-0. The Kings have a respectable top two lines, which they rely on heavily for their scoring, but there is a serious drop off in their bottom six forwards. They are backed by Jonathan Quick who has a tough 3.73 gaa and .887 save percentage through his first two starts and has seen the better days of his career come and go. Colorado has the edge in every aspect of the game and look for them to get their 5-on-5 scoring back on track. Avs puck line is the play.

The Avs managed three goals on 24 shots last game. They have the ability to produce a lot more than 24 shots. Earlier this season when they were limited offensively by the Blues in the first game of the season, they followed it up with an explosive eight goal performance. I like the chances of seeing an explosive Avalanche performance. The Avs should be able to score four or five goals on their own in this game and the Kings do have some offensive fire power at the top of theirs that can chip in as well. Last game the total ended at five goals, which included a few missed empty net opportunities. This caused the game to stay under the total. The over is offering some good value for just 5.5 goals. That kind of value with an Avalanche team that can score at a very high clip, I will take that any day. The over will be the play here.