There is a slight chance of rain in this contest, but not enough of a chance (and not significant enough of a storm) where it should affect scoring. The total sitting at this number is very similar to a spread of +5. The market is essentially saying they don't know which avenue to take, so we're going to plop this right in the middle of myriad key numbers.
On one hand, that makes sense; Los Angeles and Denver both have formidable defenses, and these are two unfamiliar opponents who may need to watch more film than usual to game-plan against such talented groups. At the same time, both Los Angeles and Denver benefit from head coaches who are oriented more on the offensive side of the ball, two gurus that lean into the significance of their quarterback and the need for explosive passing attacks.
That was plainly seen in their respective success in Week 2, where Bo Nix averaged 9.3 and Matthew Stafford averaged 9.9 yards per pass. It also helps that both offensive lines are outpacing their brethren on the other fronts. Denver holds the #1 spot at Pro Football Focus’ offensive line rankings and Los Angeles is already ranked top three in pass protection, surrendering a sack on just 1.67% of dropbacks.
Markets may be higher on the Rams’ defense after seeing a mostly successful return from Aaron Donald, and the box score certainly suggests they dominated the Giants (182 yards allowed). Of course, we know that New York turned into an entirely different, far more predictable operation once they lost their starting QB on the first drive, too.
Myles Garrett will not return for a few more weeks, and the Rams’ defense certainly looked more vulnerable in Week 1 against a better offense, too. Sean Payton, who undoubtedly still directs Davis Webb in play-calling duties, runs an aggressive West Coast scheme, similar to Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, although Shanahan’s style is certainly more run-centric. The 49ers pummeled LAR in Week 1 with their dink-and-dunk method, one that racked up 379 yards and 23 first downs. We think their output could look very similar in this case.
The elite receivers on both teams don’t support a low-scoring game, either. Last Sunday, Jaylen Waddle showed why he was a great acquisition this offseason, catching eight balls for 138 yards. Nix also distributed the ball to 10 different receivers against Jacksonville, a sign of an offense finding its rhythm. On the other side, the Rams should get Puka Nacua back on Sunday night, while future Hall of Famer Davante Adams exploded against the G-Men (eight receptions, 195 yards, two touchdowns).
Lastly, we love that both offenses have legitimate momentum heading into Sunday night, which we love to carry over into this exciting battle between two top-tier teams. This number is likely to rise, so bet this wager ASAP.
Rams vs Broncos best bet: Over 45.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.
