I much prefer the total in Bears-Packers if you’re betting this game. While I previously alluded to the Packers being broken offensively, there’s an argument to be made that the Bears’s defense is being slightly overrated for what it’s done thus far. After giving up 37 points in their only road game, the Bears held the Vikings to nine points with Carson Wentz at quarterback while playing in wet and windy conditions – that’s not all that impressive. Limiting the Eagles to seven looks good on the surface, but Philadelphia is bottom four in the league in EPA per play and success rate, and last week’s win over the Jets was without arguably their best offensive piece in RB Breece Hall.
Per SumerSports, Chicago is 14th in the NFL in success rate allowed and one of the worst defenses in the league in PPA per rush; the Bears are also 29th in yards per rush allowed, so if the Packers can get anything at all out of their backfield, Jordan Love should be able to lead this team to a few scoring drives. He hasn’t been great this year, but he was good last year against Dennis Allen’s defense, as the Packers put up an average of 23.7 points per game against Chicago. That was weighed down by a 16-point performance in sub-zero weather at the end of December, and Love left that game early.
Even with Tyson Bagent under center, Ben Johnson seems to have utmost confidence in his offense. He looked pretty good last week, when he had a 73.5% completion percentage and only took one sack on 10 pressures. Running back Kyle Monangai will either be limited or miss this contest, but D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson can handle the workload in his absence against a Packers defense that is 23rd in PPA per rush.
If there’s one area of weakness for this Chicago offense, it’s been finishing drives. The Bears get into the red zone as much as anyone in the league according to TeamRankings, but they have crossed the goal line on just 42.11% of those attempts – good for 30th out of 32 teams. I chalk that up to more bad luck than anything, as it wasn’t an issue last year or in Ben Johnson’s final two years in Detroit. Plus, this is a good opponent to fix those issues against – the Packers are dead last in the NFL in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (85.71%).
For me, it all leads to points -- especially when I diagnose the market. A total in the mid-40s seems somewhat high for a divisional game between a backup quarterback and a struggling offense. Moreover, this line re-opened a full point higher than last week’s lookahead line despite a poor offensive showing for Green Bay and a strong defensive showing for Chicago. In my opinion, that’s a strong market signal, and one that I’m confident in backing considering the matchup.
Bears vs Packers prediction: Over 45.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.
