Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/28/26

The Ottawa Senators continue to defy all reason in their pursuit of the playoffs. With a depleted blueline that has them dressing two rookies on the third pair and playing with their top two defensemen, Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson, Ottawa keeps racking up points. In what felt like a massive letdown spot on Thursday night, the Senators nearly defeated the Penguins but persevered to get a point in a shootout loss. As much as it feels like an easy bet to take the Tampa Bay Lightning here, it feels too risky to bet against the Senators again.

One angle to attack when looking at Ottawa’s blueline is that it’ll take a track meet for them to stay in games until at least Sanderson returns. Their game against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday was one of the most exciting they’ve had this year because of the wide-open nature, and the Lightning have no problem playing that style if they need to. Betting the over looks even better if at least one of the two backup goaltenders takes the crease on Saturday afternoon, but even if they don’t, the offenses could be good enough to get it over the finish line.

The Lightning have been in a bunch of high-scoring games over the last two weeks, with six straight games going over the 6.0 total we get in this matchup. Tampa Bay has scored 29 goals in those 6 games, an impressive 4.8 per game. Senators’ games haven’t been as high-scoring, but they have three or more goals in four of the last five games. If they hit at least the three-goal mark on Saturday, Tampa Bay looks like a good bet to get them the other three and beyond.

Senators vs Lightning prediction: Over 6.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.