UFC predictions and UFC picks for tonight’s event. Get UFC betting advice from expert UFC handicappers for every mixed martial arts event. Scroll down to get tonight’s UFC picks and predictions for the entire card.
There’s a new sport of kings and the popularity of mixed martial arts is largely being driven by UFC betting. In the most straightforward terms, UFC predictions involve picking who will be the winner of each fight on a certain card. There are dozens of other ways to wager on MMA fighting, and we’re on hand to find the best value MMA picks and predictions.
$50
The first fight at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Luke Sanders take on Nate Maness. This will be a fight in the UFC Catch Weight division. Sanders enters this fight as a small favorite and is 13-3 in the MMA. He has been inconsistent in the UFC however, going 3-3 over his first six fights. Sanders is known for his ability to strike, averaging 6.0 significant strikes per minute. He is absorbing 4.05 strikes per minute, but has been knocked out just once in his career. His grappling ability is rather non-existent, averaging 0.37 takedowns per every 15 minutes and landing them 25% of the time.
Maness enters this fight 12-1 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. He won his UFC debut back in August of this year. Note that Maness is only averaging 1.40 significant strikes per minute and is landing his strikes 43% of the time. He absorbs 3.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 37%. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes and landing them 100% of the time. He also defends takedowns 87% of the time.
This matchup is rather lackluster, so I think we are going to get an even fight. It is worth noting that five of Sanders six UFC fights have ended inside the distance. Sanders has been a far better striker, so as long as he keeps this fight on the feet, he is likely going to win. This might be a fight to stay away from all together, but I will lean to Sanders to get the win.
The second fight at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Malcolm Gordon take on Su Mudaerji. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division. Mudaerji is the heavy favorite entering this fight and is 12-4 in the MMA. He is 1-1 in the UFC and just won his most recent fight. This was a win by unanimous decision and came back in August of 2019. Mudaerji is averaging 5.02 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 59%. He only absorbs 2.49 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Mudaerji does only average 0.68 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but lands them with 100% accuracy. More impressively, he averages 1.4 submission attempts per every 15 minutes.
Gordon comes into this fight after losing his UFC debut. This was a loss by submission and came back in July of this year. Gordon is only averaging 0.64 significant strikes per minute, and landing them 18% of the time. That is clearly going to be a huge issue if he cannot generate any damage.
Mudaerji has seen all but one of his fights end inside the distance. He struggles with stopping submission attempts, but Gordon has shown no ability to be able to grapple. Gordon has been knocked out three times in his career as well, so I am concerned about his chin. Because Mudaerji has been able to generate a decent amount of power, I am going to back him to finish this fight.
The third fight at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Jonathan Pearce take on Kai Kamaka. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Kamaka is the heavy favorite an enters this fight 8-2 in the MMA. He is 1-0 in the UFC after beating Tony Kelly by unanimous decision back in August of this year. Kamaka is a very high-volume striker so far, averaging 7.6 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 7.6 strikes per minute, but his chin has not yet been an issue. Kamaka will more likely look to take this fight to the ground where he is averaging 5.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands and defends his takedowns with 100% accuracy.
Pearce enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-4. He is 1-1 in the UFC, losing his most recent fight to Joe Lauzon back in October of 2019. It was a loss by TKO as well and happened in the first round. Pearce is averaging 11.21 significant strikes per minute, but absorbing 7.85 strikes. He also has the ability to grapple, averaging 4.48 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He is landing his takedowns 50% of the time, but is defending them 80% of the time.
Pearce’s chin is no doubt a concern coming into this fight. He absorbs quite a lot of damage, and while Kamaka does the same, he has not been knocked out since 2015. I think Kamaka will be able to control this fight standing up, but he will win it with his ability to take his opponent down. As a result, I will take Kamaka to win as a lean, but will back him by decision to get a plus money price.
The fourth fight at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Gina Mazany take on Rachael Ostovich. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. Mazany comes in as a decent sized favorite, but it is hard to justify this price. She is 6-4 in the MMA and 1-4 in the UFC. She lost her most recent fight back in June of this year. This was a loss by TKO to Julia Avila. Mazany is averaging 2.75 significant strikes per minute, landing her strikes with an accuracy of 49%. She also absorbs 3.14 strikes per minute. Her grappling ability is solid, averaging 3.14 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She does land takedowns with an accuracy of 70%, but defends them only 20% of the time.
Ostovich comes into this fight 4-5 in the MMA and 1-2 in the UFC. She has not fought since January of 2019, a fight that ended in a submission loss. Ostovich is averaging 2.32 significant strikes per minute and is landing them at an accuracy of 43%. She is absorbing 3.28 strikes per minute, and has a striking defense of 59%. She will look to take this fight to the ground more often than not, averaging 3.28 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She also averages 1.3 submission attempts per every 15 minutes. Ostovich lands and defends takedowns 100% of the time.
Neither of these fighters have looked good at all and the fact that Mazany is 1-4 in the UFC will keep me off her side. Ostovich’s ability to stop a submission is concerning, but because Mazany cannot defend takedowns very well, I will back Ostovich to win.
$250
The fifth fight at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Anderson dos Santos take on Martin Day. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Day comes in as the favorite, though he has not looked great to say the least. Day enters this fight 8-4 in the MMA and 0-3 in the UFC. He lost his most recent fight by KO to Davey Grant, a fight that took place back in June of this year. He is averaging 5.39 strikes per minute, and landing them with at an accuracy of 45%. He also absorbs 3.99 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.70 takedowns per every 15 minutes and landing them 50% of the time. He also defends takedowns 72% of the time, so he should be solid there.
Dos Santos comes into this fight 20-8 in the MMA, but has still yet to win in the UFC. He is 0-2 in UFC events. He also has not fought since June of 2019, when he lost to Andre Ewell by decision. Dos Santos is averaging 2.7 strikes per minute, but landing them just 26% of the time. He also absorbs 5.23 strikes per minute, and has been knocked out three times in his career. He has shown some grappling ability, although he only lands his takedowns 20% of the time, which is a big problem with a guy like Day on the other side of the Octagon.
Neither guy has really looked impressive in the UFC so far, so it is very difficult to pick an outright winner. Combined these guys have seen four of their five UFC fights go the distance, so that is where I am leaning here. They both defend takedowns well enough and have decent striking defense, so I will back the fight to go the distance.
The featured preliminary at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Ashlee-Evans Smith take on Norma Dumont. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division. This fight is basically a pick em’ with Smith listed as a slight favorite. She comes into this fight 6-4 in the MMA and 3-4 in the UFC. Her most recent fight did end in a loss to Andrea Lee. Though this fight was in February of 2019. The long layoff could pose a problem, but she has had plenty of time to prepare to say the least. Smith is at least a solid striker, averaging 4.86 significant strikes per minute. The problem here is her striking accuracy is 35%. She also absorbs 4.37 strikes per minute, but has never been knocked out in her career. Her grappling ability is also decent, averaging 1.3 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is poor at 25%, but she defends them 72% of the time.
Dumont comes into this fight 4-1 in the MMA and 0-1 in the UFC. She lost her UFC debut back in February of this year, losing by TKO to Megan Anderson. Dumont is averaging just 1.42 significant strikes per minute, and is landing her strikes at an accuracy of 31%. She is absorbing 1.99 strikes per minute, but her chin was unable to hold up as mentioned in that previous fight. Dumont will look to take this fight to the ground where she is averaging 4.27 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though her takedown accuracy is only 33%, so she may struggle in this department as well.
The lack of striking ability for Dumont is concerning and the fact that she got knocked out so quickly last time out will keep me off her side. I like the balance from Smith an even though she has been somewhat inconsistent recently, I think her striking will win her this fight.
The first fight on the main Card at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Spike Carlyle take on Bill Algeo. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Carlyle is the moderate favorite here an enters this fight 9-2 in the MMA. He is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off his first UFC loss to Billy Quarantillo. Carlyle is averaging 3.47 strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 60%. He only absorbs 3.11 significant strikes per minute, but only has a striking defense of 34%. Carlyle also has plenty of grappling ability, averaging 2.74 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands and defends takedowns 50% of the time.
Algeo enters this fight still looking for his first UFC win. He is 13-5 in the MMA, but 0-2 in the UFC. His most recent UFC blunder was way back in May of this year. This was a loss to Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision. Algeo is a very high-volume striker, averaging 7.87 significant strikes per minute. He lands these strikes with an accuracy of 53%. The main issue here is he absorbs 7.20 strikes per minute, and his striking defense is only 35%. Algeo is much less of a grappler, averaging just 0.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands his takedowns 33% of the time and defends them 57% of the time.
This fight feels much more evenly matched than the line would indicate even their strengths. Carlyle is the more balanced fighter with his grappling ability, but Algeo tends to hit much harder. Then again, Carlyle has never been finished, so I would probably lean his way to get the job done and keep Algeo from picking up his first UFC win.
The second fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Miguel Baeza take on Takashi Sato. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Baeza will look to protect his perfect record in this fight as he comes in 9-0 in the MMA. He is 3-0 in the UFC, winning his last fight in May of this year. Baeza is averaging 4.78 significant strikes per minute, landing these strikes with an accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 4.67 strikes per minute, but his chin has yet to be an issue. Baeza is not going to be looking to grapple, averaging just 0.54 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He does defend takedown 100% of the time, which will be a huge bonus.
Sato enters this fight 16-3 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. He is coming off a win over Jason Witt from back in June of this year and ended in the first round by TKO. Sato is now averaging 3.94 significant strikes per minute, but his striking accuracy is only 41%. He is absorbing 5.10 strikes per minute and has been knocked out once. Much like his opponent, Sato’s grappling is probably not going to win him this fight. He averages 0.79 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands them 50% of the time and defends them 80% of the time.
Both fighters have been solid, but I am going to ride the undefeated fighter here. Baeza does not absorb as much damage either, so I think he finds a way to get the job done.
$200
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Josh Parisian take on Parker Porter. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Parisian will make his official UFC debut in this fight after previously winning two fights in Dana White’s Contender Series. His first Contender Series fight was back in June of 2018. The second Contender Series fight was in August of this year. Parisian is averaging 7.07 significant strikes per minute and lands them with an accuracy of 55%. He does absorb 4.97 strikes per minute and has a lacking striking defense, but has only ever been knocked out once. He defends takedowns 100% of the time and is averaging 2.9 submission attempts per every 15 minutes.
Porter will still be looking for his first UFC debut win after losing to Chris Daukaus in his UFC debut. Porter did not look good in this fight and that was the reason why he got knocked out in the first round. He is averaging 6.82 significant strikes per minute, but is absorbing 7.06 strikes. He also averages 1.22 takedowns per every 15 minutes, landing them 100% of the time.
Parisian has look much more impressive in his career and as a result, has finished 12 of his 13 wins. I see this fight being a domination by Parisian and will back him to win this fight. I would also look to include Parisian in a parlay if you do not like backing this type of price.
The Co-Main Event at UFC on ESPN 18 will see Anthony Smith take on Devin Clark. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Smith comes into this fight as a small favorite, which I find interesting because of how bad he has looked recently. Smith is 33-16 in the MMA, but 8-6 in the UFC. He has lost his last two fights, one by TKO in May and the other by unanimous decision in August. Combined in these fights, Smith was out struck 182 to 95, so clearly, he is going to have to change something. He is averaging 2.97 significant strikes per minute, landing them with an accuracy of 46%. He is also now absorbing 4.43 strikes per minute, which part of the reason why he has been inconsistent recently.
Clark comes into this fight 12-4 in the MMA and 6-4 in the UFC. He has won two fights in a row and most recently beat Alonzo Menifield by unanimous decision back in June of this year. Clark is averaging 3.40 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 2.47 strikes per minute and has been knocked out twice. He also has the ability to grapple, averaging 2.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He does only land these takedowns with an accuracy of 36%, but defends them 83% of the time.
Clark looks to be the more balanced fighter right now, while Smith just cannot get anything going. Because he has looked so poor in his fights this year, I am going to instead back Clark to score the small upset.
$200
The Main Event for UFC on ESPN 18 will see Curtis Blaydes take on Derrick Lewis. This will be a fight in the Heavyweight division. Both guys are also highly rated in this division, so a title shot could be coming to who wins this fight. Blaydes does enter this fight as a heavy favorite and is 14-2 in the MMA. He is 8-2 in the UFC with both his losses coming against Francis Ngannou. Both his losses to Ngannou were by TKO, but other than that he has been near perfect. He also is currently riding a four-fight win streak, most recently beating Alexander Volkov by unanimous decision. Blaydes is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute, landing his strikes 53% of the time. He absorbs just 1.73 significant strikes per minute, so I am not concerned about his chin too much. Blaydes is an extremely balanced fighter, considering he is averaging 6.98 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 55% as well, while he defends takedowns just 33% of the time.
Lewis comes into this fight 24-7 in the MMA and 15-5 in the UFC. He is riding a three-fight win streak and most recently beat Alexey Oleynik by TKO back in August of this year. Lewis is averaging 2.64 significant strikes per minute, landing them 50% of the time. He is absorbing 2.09 significant strikes per minute, but has been knocked out four times in the UFC. The difference with Lewis is that he does not grapple well at all. He is averaging just 0.54 takedowns per every 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 26%.
Despite the power both these guys have, they do not get knocked out very often. This is going to be a slugfest of power and in the end, I do like Blaydes to come away from this fight with a win. His money line is still rather high, but he is much more balanced and with his ability to fight on the ground, I do not see how he loses. This could also be a fight where you only use Blaydes in a parlay instead of straight up.
Once a month or more there is a UFC fight held with a card that may feature over a dozen fights including the preliminaries. Each of those battles offers a chance for a variety of UFC picks to be graded wins or losses.
Each fighter will have odds depending on how likely he or she is to win the fight combined with the likelihood that the public is going to take those odds. In a perfect world (for sportsbooks) betting actually will be split as close to possible to each side of the octagon. This limits the damage in case of an upset and prevents a huge loss if a heavy chalk fighter gets a big win.
The way sportsbooks manage their leverage for UFC betting is by raising the odds on the favorite until he or she is nearly too high priced to take. Most bettors would be hammering Goliath -100, but half of them are going to switch sides when Goliath -450 odds are released because it’s too pricey; too much of a risk for the reward.
In addition to out UFC picks and predictions for all of the main UFC events, which are typically headlined by a title fight, and pay-per-view, we also cover each of the UFC Fight Night events, which are held around two or three weekends a month.
Our UFC Fight Night Predictions are often some of our most fruitful UFC picks, with the cards often not as strong as the headline UFC events, filled with the stars of tomorrow, this is where our experts’ knowledge of the fighters pays dividends.
Everyone knows the likes of Conor McGregor, Jon Jones, and Khabib Nurmagomedov to name a few, and with the marquee fights, betting interest skyrockets. With this, the attention sportsbooks place on their markets do too, so the UFC Fight Night Predictions are often filled with hidden gems.
Following the UFC away from the spotlights, researching those lesser-known, upcoming fighters can often prove fruitful, and that’s exactly what we do here with our UFC Fight Night predictions.
Our experts leave no stone unturned ahead of locking in our UFC predictions, watching hours of film, past fights, breaking down the matchups, stats, and training camps to bring you the most informed UFC Fight Night predictions.
© Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
With either a UFC Title fight or a UFC Fight Night card most weekends, there is plenty of UFC action to wager on. We cover every morsel of UFC action and all of our UFC predictions tonight can be found right here.
A UFC card is more than the main event, with the main card, prelim fights, and early prelim fights, you can see up to 15 UFC fights on fight night and our Expert UFC handicappers spend hours researching each one, to bring you the best UFC predictions tonight.
Many UFC bettors will be tuning in for the main event but may want to have a wager across the card or on some of the early fights. Our experts cover each fight on the card, right through to the main event, and with in-depth previews, you can digest all of the key stats and information alongside all of our UFC predictions tonight.
The emergence of the UFC has done wonders for Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) with peak UFC fights drawing in audiences in their millions, from around the world.
The UFC is the pinnacle of MMA and our experts follow MMA institutions from around the world and already know a great deal about fighters that secure that big move into the UFC.
The UFC is such a large institution, hosting MMA fight cards almost weekly throughout the year, and with a large number of fights, our MMA predictions and MMA picks solely focus on these UFC events.
Our MMA Predictions will largely focus on the main markets of the fights with Moneyline MMA picks and Method of Victory markets which can offer considerably greater odds than a Moneyline wager.
We provide a detailed rundown of the fighters, and how we see the fights shaping up, taking the various MMA disciplines into consideration in finding the best MMA picks on the card.
Our MMA picks and MMA predictions will be posted a few days before fight night so you can digest our fight-by-fight analysis and best MMA picks this week.
We aim to post our UFC picks as early as possible leading up to fight night to give you time to digest our previews and the key stats and information surround the fight.
When this is can vary fight-to-fight, but will usually be at least a few days before fight night arrives.
One of the great things about the UFC and a big part of its success is the media access leading up to the fights. During the fight week press conferences, we can find clues about the shape of a fighter, how the camp has gone, and many other UFC betting clues we can use when analyzing a fight.
With this, we absorb as much information as possible during fight week, ahead of making our and UFC picks, which can see them being posted a little later than others, but rest assured, our UFC picks and fight preview always be posted with plenty of time to spare ahead of fight night.
When it comes to betting on the UFC, the majority of bettors will look to place a wager on the outcome of a fight.
The most popular UFC wagers are on a certain fighter to win, known as a Moneyline bet, or a wager on a fighter to win, and also the method in which they win by, such as Knockout/Technical knockout, submission or decision is known as Method of Victory.
Method of Victory is a market that offers greater odds than a Moneyline UFC pick and is one in which you must research the fighters, and how the fight is likely to play out, before making your pick.
If you have two fighters that like to stand and trade, punch for punch, you would look at the fight possibly not going the distance and one fighter to win by KO. At the same time, if you have a fighter that excels on the ground, you may opt to take them to win by submission.
A Moneyline play is the safest option as your fighter just needs to win, but if in our research we find a spot we like in the Method of Victory markets, and one that offers good value odds, we also post these within our UFC picks.
Check out our complete UFC Betting Guide, where we detail all of the different markets for UFC picks, the best sportsbook to bet on the UFC, and our top-5 tips to betting smarter on the UFC.
Unlike other combat sports, such as boxing, the UFC prides itself on relative parity in its fights and while you’ll have the occasional short-odds favorite, the majority of UFC fights will have decent odds for both fighters. With this Moneyline odds come into play, again, unlike boxing, you’ll never see a -10000 favorite in the UFC.
A big part of having success with UFC picks is shopping the odds. Over time, shopping the odds will increase your profits a great deal, and also better shoulder those UFC picks that may not go your way.
With the UFC’s ever-increasing popularity, betting turnover has increased, making it a popular sport to offer amongst sportsbooks. Almost every online sportsbook will offer odds on the big UFC events and the majority will cover UFC Fight Nights including the early prelim fights.
Competition amongst sportsbooks favors the bettor as you can compare the odds and place your wager on UFC picks at the best possible odds.
Alongside all of our UFC picks for this week, you will find our in-depth preview and also the odds of our UFC pick, and where these odds are offered. This will be the best odds available at the time of posting, but the lines will fluctuate as we approach fight night so be sure to shop the odds.
Unsure where to wager on the UFC? Check out our full UFC Betting Guide for our best UFC sportsbooks, along with our Online Sportsbook Reviews, where we detail everything you need to know about all of the top online sportsbooks, including the best bonuses and promo codes for new customers.
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