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Ashleigh Barty at +600 is a reasonable price. When healthy, the reigning Wimbledon champion is far and away the best player on tour right now. By comparison, co-favorite Naomi Osaka, representing host nation Japan, should be avoided like the absolute plague given her well-documented off-the-court issues.
Although Barty is a good bet, there is otherwise a ton of parity on the women’s tour and a longshot play in Tokyo would not be a bad idea. Barbora Krejcikova (+1800) won the French Open, played well at Wimbledon, and is coming off another title last week in Prague. Check the draw first, but if she stays away from Barty then Krejcikova becomes a strong play.
Novak Djokovic is a solid bet at -140 and would arguably be playable around -160 or so. The world No. 1 just took care of business at Wimbledon after beginning the tournament at minus money. He is simply dominant right now, to the extent that he is still in contention for the calendar-year Golden Slam (winning all four Grand Slams and the Olympics). Djokovic has already lifted trophies at the Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon. The Serb had a few tough matches in Melbourne and Paris, but he pretty much made a mockery of the All-England Club proceedings.
Djokovic was one of the first tennis players to contract Covid-19 last summer and chances are good he won’t get it again. It’s hard to see him being ousted from this tournament fair and square by any opponent.
If you do want to look at an underdog, I would wait until the draw comes out on Thursday and take a gamble on someone who is on the opposite side of the bracket from Djokovic. The odds on Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexander Zverev are probably too small, but Andrey Rublev at +1100 or Felix Auger-Aliassime at +2500 would be intriguing if they avoid Djokovic in the draw.