UFC Fight Night 260: Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell Prediction for Saturday, 09/27/25

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 260 will see Tom Nolan take on Charlie Campbell. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Nolan enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-1 and 3-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Nolan absorbs 4.85 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. He is a decent grappler, averaging 0.41 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same period. Nolan has a takedown accuracy of 12% and a takedown defense of 66%.

Campbell enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-2 and 2-1 in the UFC. He averages 5.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Campbell absorbs 3.73 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 2.95 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 71%.

Nolan is the moderate favorite in this fight, but still looks to be a decent betting option. He has the slight edge in striking volume, and while grappling volume does not compare to Campbell’s, he is much better at attempting submissions. Further, Nolan has won each of his last 3 UFC fights; therefore, backing Nolan to win will be our play.