UFC on ABC 8: Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai Prediction for Saturday, 06/21/25

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC on ABC 8 will see Tofiq Musayev take on Myktybek Orolbai. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Musayev enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-5, and this will be his official UFC debut. Through 27 professional fights, Musayev has already won 18 times by KO/TKO and 2 times by submission.

Orolbai enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-2-1 and is 2-1 in the UFC. He averages 3.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Orolbai is absorbing 3.39 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling has been elite so far in the UFC, averaging 5.36 takedowns every 15 minutes. Orolbai has a takedown accuracy of 43% and a takedown defense of 40%.

Orolbai is the moderate favorite in the fight; therefore, we will be looking to back this fight to end inside the distance. While Musayev has not yet fought in the UFC, he has seen the vast majority of his career MMA fights end inside the distance. This includes 24 of his 27 career fights and each of his last 5 fights. As for Orolbai, he has seen 11 of his 16 career MMA fights end inside the distance, including 3 of his last 5 fights. Given that both fighters have a high finish rate recently, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.