Shanghai Masters - Quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev -1.5 Games (-160) vs Tommy Paul

Two tour veterans meet for the sixth time in as many years, vying for a semifinal spot in Shanghai against the winner of Jodar/Ruud, and both still have Turin to play for.

Paul did well to get past Bergs on Wednesday. The Belgian came in following the best win of his career over Alcaraz, which clinched year-end #1 for Zverev. He was a win from matching his best Masters result, last year's quarterfinal here. Paul ended the fairy tale in straight sets, saving eight of nine break points. That is now three straight-set wins in his second event back from the elbow injury that cost him the Laver Cup, and his first Shanghai quarterfinal.

Medvedev is having quite the eventful stay in Asia. He won Hangzhou, then got himself defaulted in the Beijing semifinal against Djokovic for hitting a spectator with a ball. I was interested to see how that might affect his run in Shanghai, but he has been sharp since dropping a set to Struff in his first match back, taking out Tsitsipas on Wednesday without facing a break point. The 2019 Shanghai champion has lost just five matches here in his career (17-5 across seven appearances) and is into the quarters for the fourth time. "I love Shanghai as a city," he said this week.

Medvedev leads the H2H 4-1 and has won all three on hard courts, most recently at Indian Wells in 2025 with a second-set bagel. Paul said after his win over Bergs that Meddy "won't miss many balls and will make you earn every point." Medvedev is a streaky player and has been prone to huge dips in recent years, but when he wins, he wins by margin: 42 of his 43 wins this year have come by two games or more, 32 of 32 on hard courts. A game and a half offers a discount on the moneyline, and we can expect the Russian to return to the semifinals for a second straight year.

The pick: Medvedev -1.5 games (-160)