Medvedev arrived in Vienna with the hottest hand on the ATP Tour. Since the Asian swing began in late September, the Russian is 18-2 with 250 titles in Hangzhou and Almaty. The run has lifted him to fifth in the live Race to Turin. But every round here and in Paris counts, as he sits just 70 points over Cobolli with Fils and Tiafoe also in reach.
The streaky but brilliant Mannarino is on a run of his own. The 38-year-old Frenchman's October has included wins over Cobolli in Shanghai and Rublev in Almaty. He arrived in Vienna as a qualifier and has won four matches, most notably against Jakub Mensik in straight sets.
Medvedev is 13-3 across five appearances at this event, with the 2022 title. He has every reason to feel good about this draw. The exception could be a lefty. He was just 6-6 against them last year, and on Thursday the left-handed Norrie forced a third-set tiebreak. Enter Mannarino.
Their first match came ten years ago in Hertogenbosch, and Mannarino's last win came there too, in 2023 on grass. Meddy leads the head to head 5-4 and has won the last three meetings in straight sets, with each featuring a tiebreak. The Frenchman lost them 8-6, 8-6 and 7-5, within two points all three times. Notably, the Russian has lost 17 of 27 tiebreak sets this year.
Mannarino's lefty serve on a fast indoor court can frustrate anyone not named Jannik Sinner. Medvedev has dropped a set in two of his last three matches and 24 of 54 this year, and he plays a third straight day. Mannarino had Thursday off. I like him to take a set at plus money.
Medvedev vs Mannarino prediction: Mannarino +1.5 sets (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable at this number.
