China Open - Semifinal: Alex de Minaur ML vs Hubert Hurkacz (-122)
De Minaur married fellow tennis player Katie Boulter in July, but he would tell you he did not have the North American hard-court summer he envisioned. He has turned things around nicely since his second-round loss to Van de Zandschulp at the US Open, winning six straight singles matches, including two at the Davis Cup and one over Zverev at the Laver Cup.
Hurkacz is enjoying his extended time in Asia. He has racked up significantly more court time than anyone else on the tour. The Chengdu final was his first final of the year, and he has continued to pick up quality wins, taking out Tien, Gea and Khachanov through the first three rounds in Beijing.
De Minaur is in his second straight Beijing semifinal, and the Demon has won all three previous meetings with Hurkacz on hard courts. This is the Pole's first semifinal above the 250 level since Rotterdam in February 2025, and Monday is his ninth match in twelve days. Diamond court plays close to average speed in the daytime, which gives de Minaur time to turn this into a physical match that will be won from the baseline. I like the Demon to reach the final.
The pick: de Minaur ML (-122)
