Shanghai Masters - Semifinal: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +1.5 Sets (-130) vs Alexander Zverev
Saturday's Shanghai semifinal is the eighth meeting between Davidovich Fokina and Zverev. Zverev leads the H2H 6-1, but Foki has won a set in three of their last four meetings, including a 6-1, 6-2 win in Toronto in 2023.
Spain's #3 is 8-0 in China this fall, and he wants Ferrer, Spain's Davis Cup captain, to notice. Traditionally, players sign the TV camera after a win. After Hurkacz, Fokina wrote "Estoy, eh" (I'm here). After Gea he wrote "Esperando" (Waiting). Ferrer names Spain's team on October 26th, and the reported four leave him out. A Masters 1000 final on Saturday would be hard to ignore.
Zverev played his best match of the tournament against de Minaur, saving all five break points he faced and converting both of his own. It is hard to find holes in his game right now, and with year-end #1 clinched, the title is all that is left to play for. His fitness is the concern, and he said so himself afterward: "The longer the match goes, the worse my ankle gets." Halys and Bublik both kept him out there, and both took a set.
Notably, Zverev has lost five straight hard-court Masters 1000 semifinals. Foki, meanwhile, is just 1-9 against top-three opponents in best-of-three matches, and he should like his chance to improve that number. I am once again looking to the player with more to play for to take a set off the favorite.
The pick: Davidovich Fokina +1.5 sets (-130)
