Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton meet again on Sunday with the Paris Masters title on the line. Their last meeting was a match of the year contender, with Shelton winning the US Open quarterfinal in a fifth-set tiebreak. The American has since added Juan Carlos Ferrero, Alcaraz's former coach, to his box. The rematch in Paris feels scripted.
In Saturday's semifinals, Shelton struggled as a heavy favorite against Van Assche, dropping the first set and going a break down in the third. The first question after he found his way to a win over the home favorite was whether he would consult Ferrero about his former player. Alcaraz was more straightforward against Ruud, winning 82% of his points on serve and at the net.
Revenge will be on Alcaraz's mind. Paris is one of three Masters 1000 events where he has yet to win a title, and a win Sunday would be his ninth overall. He has not lost since Vienna began, and his last nine completed wins have all covered -2.5 games. Shelton has lost to him twice in the best-of-three format, both times by four games.
Three straight three-setters got Shelton to this final. Alcaraz should be fresh after just 86 minutes on court Saturday, which matters after 2 hours and 43 minutes against Fritz on Friday. The best player in the world will force Shelton into quick decisions with his shot variety. I like Alcaraz to win the title and cover the short game spread.
Alcaraz vs Shelton prediction: Alcaraz -2.5 games (-170) available at time of publishing.
