Japan Open - Final: Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-122) vs Jiri Lehecka
Alcaraz and Lehecka meet for the fifth time in the Tokyo final with the Spaniard up 3-1 in the H2H, including a straight-sets win in the US Open quarterfinals last year. Lehecka's lone win came last year, in Doha.
Alcaraz got broken at love serving for the set, and then again at love with a double fault to lose the opening set to Munar in the semifinals. That is back-to-back matches he has been broken at love serving for the opening set. Then he did what the greats do: dominate. He won the second set with a double break and delivered a 6-1 breadstick in the decider to reach his second straight Tokyo final. He is now 9-0 here and bidding to be the first repeat champion in Tokyo since Sampras in 1993-94.
Lehecka lost just four (!!) points on serve against Vacherot and has not faced a break point in his previous two rounds. Look at the opponents, though. Vacherot leans heavily on his serve and didn't have it, and Vallejo looked lost in a 59-minute, 6-1, 6-1 defeat. Bergs and Humbert took Lehecka to three sets earlier in the week, and Alcaraz is an entirely different class of shot creator and by far the best returner he has seen in Tokyo.
Alcaraz has looked shaky at times, but I'll go back to what I wrote in the semifinal preview: the elite players raise their level in the final rounds. I expect Alcaraz to start quickly, forcing Lehecka to hit the extra balls he has yet to see through four rounds here. Lehecka's serve should keep the scoreboard close, but Carlos will have too many answers on the big points. Vamos Carlitos!
The pick: Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-122)
