Holger Rune is back. The 23-year-old tore his Achilles in Stockholm last October and returned in September after an eleven-month injury layoff, losing his opening matches in Tokyo and Shanghai. His consecutive third-set tiebreak wins over Halys and Hurkacz have surely given him and his camp relief.
Across four appearances in Basel he holds a 12-3 record, including a runner-up finish to FAA in 2022 and consecutive semifinal appearances in 2023 and 2024. With that said, I was surprised to see Rune priced as a -135 favorite against an in-form Vacherot.
Vacherot, the 2025 Shanghai surprise winner, took out Rune in a 3-hour quarterfinal battle last October on his title run. He has done well to build on that result with a 26-19 record this year. Through two rounds in Basel, he beat Navone and then Jodar on Thursday, clutching out two tiebreak sets.
This should be a highly competitive match and will likely feature a tiebreak or two. Rune has won two of his three tiebreak sets here, but he came dangerously close to squandering 5-2 leads in both. Vacherot holds a 16-8 record in tiebreak sets this year and his serve will give him more free points. Rune's fitness will be in question after going three sets in both matches here. The market is overlooking that. I like the Monegasque at plus money.
Rune vs Vacherot prediction: Vacherot to win (+135) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.
