Lehecka is a sizable favorite for a fourth straight match in Basel. His three wins here have gone 25, 22 and 18 games, with the first set going 7-5 against both Wawrinka and Altmaier.
To the surprise of many, Struff was dominant on Friday against Borges. The German was 0-2 against him previously yet won 6-2, 6-3 in 59 minutes. His lone three-setter this week, a first win over Djokovic in nine meetings, featured two breakers on Thursday. Three of his five matches in last week's run to the Brussels final included a tiebreak.
While Lehecka leads the H2H 3-0, each of their meetings has featured tightly contested sets, including a five-setter at Roland Garros in 2023. Both players heavily rely on their serve, and their matches frequently produce tiebreakers. Lehecka has played 30 tiebreak sets this year and Struff 32. With breaks at a premium, the over needs one breaker or a third set. I believe this is a great spot to back a long match.
Struff vs Lehecka prediction: Over 22.5 games (-141) available at time of publishing.
