China Open - Final: Alex de Minaur +3.5 Games (-150) vs Novak Djokovic
At 39, Djokovic is the oldest ATP 500 finalist since 1990. He arrived in Beijing with plenty of questions from his doubters and has yet again silenced them all. He's sustained three back-to-back long, physical matches: coming back from a set down against Bu and Zverev, then saving 16 of 18 break points against Medvedev, who was defaulted at 7-5, 5-3 for hitting a ball into a fan.
The fittest man on tour, de Minaur should be ready to go in his first Beijing final. Hurkacz retired after just over an hour on court, and while he needed three sets to take out the Hangzhou runner-up Rublev, that match lasted just two hours. He's now won seven straight matches since the US Open, and he has always enjoyed medium-slow hard courts, evidenced by his 2025 Washington title and an 8-2 record at this event.
Novak is yet to dominate a match here, and with a cool night session scheduled he looks to be in for more of the same: a physical match with long, extended rallies. That, plus Djokovic's recent time on court, should be music to ADM's ears. When I'm fading the GOAT in an ATP Final, I'll take the games to be safe.
The pick: de Minaur +3.5 games (-150)
