Fritz faces the best player in the world with everything to play for. A win over Alcaraz pushes him into the last remaining spot in Turin and into a maiden Paris semifinal. Alcaraz has won six of their seven meetings, but Fritz has taken a set off him in each of the last two. In last year's ATP Finals he took the first set before Alcaraz came back 6-7, 7-5, 6-3.
Following a disappointing swing in Asia, Fritz reached the Lyon final and the Basel semifinal in consecutive weeks coming into Paris. Outside of those losses to Musetti and Vacherot, the American's level has been commendable, and it has given him an unexpected chance to make it back to Turin for a third straight year. His opening matches in Paris were hard-fought three-setters against Bonzi and Molcan, then Fils in straight sets with all of Paris against him on Thursday.
As a result of the Berrettini walkover, Alcaraz has played just one match this week, 7-6, 6-3 over Michelsen, and comes in off the Vienna title. The Spaniard has covered -2.5 in six straight wins. I expect the first set of this match to be close, potentially even going to Fritz. But he will be asking a lot of himself to keep up with Alcaraz in peak form. I like Carlitos to cover the short games handicap.
Alcaraz vs Fritz prediction: Alcaraz -2.5 games (-135) available at time of publishing.
