Alcaraz is still finding his peak form after his April injury caused him to take four months off, although saying that doesn't feel right when you consider he won Tokyo and is 12-2 since the US Open.
Paul has looked the best he has all year through his opening two matches in Vienna, taking out Rublev 7-5, 6-2 and Darderi 6-1, 6-1. Now up to 44 wins on the year, the American sits 13th in the live Race to Turin and would need a title here to keep his Finals hopes alive in the last two weeks of the season.
Alcaraz leads the head to head 7-2, with four of their previous five best-of-three meetings going over 21 games.
Additionally, the Spaniard's hard-court matches have gone over this total in seven of his last ten. Carlitos is untouchable on his day, but has not looked it through his opening rounds. Paul is coming in red-hot and should keep the sets close. I like the over on games.
Alcaraz vs Paul prediction: Over 21.5 games (-117) available at time of publishing.
