Fritz is in the semifinals for a second straight week and back in contention for the ATP Finals. He started the week 11th in the race, about 450 points behind Jodar in the eighth and final spot. Thanks to his semifinal opponent, Jodar is already on his way to Paris. A Swiss Indoors Basel title would put Fritz within 14 points of him with a Masters 1000 to play.
Vacherot followed his win over Jodar with another sharp performance against Holger Rune, saving nine of 10 break points faced. He has won the first set in all three of his matches this week.
Fritz won their lone meeting in the first round here last year. Vacherot took the opening set 6-4 before the American wore him down. Fritz is 23-12 and Vacherot is 18-8 in tiebreak sets this year. With a first-set breaker fully in play here, the first-set odds are much closer to a coin flip than the oddsmakers suggest.
I am hesitant to lay a game spread with Fritz as he can struggle on return against other big servers. He is also playing for Turin, and with significantly more pressure than Vacherot. In a match where nerves could be in play, the first set at +199 screams value. Vacherot is a fast starter and Fritz has not been pushed all week. I like Vacherot to take the opener at plus money.
Fritz vs Vacherot prediction: Vacherot first set ML (+199) available at time of publishing.
