Florida is the #1 team in the country, undefeated, and carrying all the hype that comes with being college basketball's top-ranked program. The Gators have opened their campaign with victories over Miami and Jacksonville, while Florida State is also 2-0, albeit against considerably less appealing opposition in Florida A&M and Troy. Throw in the fact that Florida has won five consecutive meetings against the Seminoles, covering four of those contests, and suddenly the Gators look like an awfully attractive proposition. But here's the question. Are we really getting an accurate reflection of the difference between these teams, or are we paying a premium for Florida's ranking, reputation, and recent dominance in this rivalry?
That's where things get interesting. Florida State is catching 9.5 points on its home floor in a rivalry game where conventional expectations have a habit of going out the window. The total is sitting at an elevated 166.5, and while that could suggest another comfortable Florida victory, it also creates the possibility of considerable momentum swings throughout the contest. The Seminoles should have opportunities to answer offensively, even if the Gators establish an early advantage. More importantly, we're talking about a home underdog getting nearly double digits against its biggest rival, with the number potentially enhanced by Florida's ranking and five-game winning streak in the series. Rivalry games are rarely the ideal place to lay inflated points on the road, regardless of how impressive the favorite looks on paper. I expect Florida State to make this considerably more competitive than the market anticipates.
Florida vs Florida State prediction: Florida State +9.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.
