Let's forget for a moment that New Mexico State is actually a capable basketball team and concentrate on the spot, because there's plenty to unpack. Gonzaga enters this contest fresh off a high-profile victory over Purdue in Las Vegas to open its 2026-27 campaign, defeating the Boilermakers by seven points while covering as a -5.5 favorite. Plenty of bettors were aboard the Bulldogs and cashed their tickets, which only enhances the appeal of backing Gonzaga against considerably weaker opposition. After all, if the Zags can take care of a program with Purdue's pedigree, surely they can dismantle New Mexico State on their home floor. Right? That's precisely the thinking that makes the Zags so interesting. The Bulldogs are laying a whopping 27.5 points, and we're being asked to pay a considerable premium for the privilege of backing them.
But here's the kicker: Gonzaga hosts LSU in Spokane Arena next Saturday in the Bad Boys Mowers Series for another matchup spot. And while the Tigers aren't necessarily the cream of the SEC crop, they are still a Power Conference opponent with considerable clout. Nestled between a marquee showdown with Purdue and another against LSU is a New Mexico State outfit that the market expects Gonzaga to beat by nearly 30 points. Talk about a sandwich spot. This has all the ingredients of a game the Bulldogs will want to get over and done with before shifting their attention to the Tigers. That opens the door for Gonzaga to take its foot off the gas early and allow a backdoor cover or it never even gets to that point. The Zags should win comfortably, but covering an all but certain enhanced number in this particular situation is another matter entirely. I'll take the points.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs prediction: New Mexico State +27.5 (+106) available at time of publishing. Playable to +27.
