We can state the obvious here. Michigan State is one of college basketball's marquee programs, playing at home and ranked inside the top 10 -- and with all those bells and whistles comes an inflated price next to the Spartans' name and crest. That's before we consider their respective season openers. Michigan State absolutely splattered Quinnipiac, while Toledo suffered a narrow one-point defeat on the road against Arkansas State. Put all those ingredients together and you have a situation where the average bettor is going to have very little hesitation laying a substantial number with the Spartans. But here's the problem: taking action on Sparty is playing into the house's hands, as doing so is backing Michigan State inherently at a bad number.
The Spartans also have considerably bigger fish to fry, and that's where this handicap gets interesting. Michigan State's next assignment is a primetime showdown with #2 Duke in the State Farm Champions Classic in the Windy City on Tuesday night. A historic hardwood rivalry that is serving as one of college basketball's premier early-season spectacles can shift priorities. You can also hazard a guess here that the Blue Devils are already occupying some real estate in the Spartans' minds. As a result, this creates precisely the sort of spot where a superior team handles its business, establishes a comfortable advantage,\ and shifts its attention toward the much bigger occasion ahead. Michigan State doesn't need to embarrass Toledo to prepare for Duke. The Spartans simply need to get out in front and cruise onward. Laying more than 26 points under these circumstances is an entirely different proposition. The Spartans can be up 35 early, call off the dogs and win by 24 without even batting an eye. Let's take the points.
Toledo vs Michigan State prediction: Toledo +26.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +25.5 (+111).
