I believe Pennsylvania has a huge edge over Navy, even in Annapolis. The Quakers love to push the tempo, shoot plenty of three-pointers and turn games into a track meet, while the Midshipmen prefer a considerably slower, more methodical approach. But here's the kicker: Navy ranks 261st nationally in three-point defense, allowing opponents to connect on 34.3% of their attempts. That's hardly an encouraging statistic when you're preparing to face a Pennsylvania outfit that isn't shy about letting it fly from beyond the arc. The Quakers have already faced Illinois on the road in a March Madness rematch and Howard, who also reached last season's NCAA Tournament. On the contrary, Navy's victories have come against a Division II opponent and Delaware State -- the latter by just six points. D-State is also ranked 364th in KenPom's ratings -- the worst in Division I besides only Mississippi Valley State. Read that once more, please.
Against George Washington, the Mids got splattered and only scored 39 points while giving up 91. Pennsylvania's defensive numbers aren't particularly flattering from first glance (88.5 ppg), and there's an important distinction to make here. The Quakers surrendered 100 points against Illinois -- and, frankly, there's no shame in struggling against the Illini in Champaign. They are the #3 team in the country, after all. Navy's defensive breakthroughs, meanwhile, have been accumulated against considerably weaker competition. Against any one of consequence, the Midshipmen got wrecked. Whether you consider George Washington as such is subject to debate, but I can assure you that UPenn is an opponent of consequence. Pennsylvania has been tested against far better opposition, plays at a pace Navy would rather avoid and possesses the perimeter shooting to exploit a glaring defensive vulnerability. I expect the Quakers to dictate the tempo, force Navy out of its comfort zone and ultimately run the Midshipmen off the floor.
Pennsylvania vs Navy prediction: Pennsylvania -10.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.5.
