Purdue enters this matchup searching for its first win of the season as they prepare to take on an Illinois State team that loves to shoot it from beyond the arc. The Boilermakers had a tough outing against Valparaiso on Friday, surrendering two buzzer-beaters, one to send the game into overtime and another to give Valparaiso the win. Purdue shot a respectable 47.3% against Gonzaga to open the season, but their defense has been a major concern, allowing 80.5 points per game this season.
Illinois State is shooting 50.9% from three-point range through its first two games, averaging 14.5 made threes per contest, which ranks ninth nationally. Purdue is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.2% from beyond the arc, but the Boilermakers will need to close out aggressively on the perimeter to contain an Illinois State team that can get hot quickly. Purdue does have an advantage inside with Daniel Jacobsen, who is averaging 25 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. However, the Boilermakers have struggled with their own perimeter shooting, making just 10 of 49 three-point attempts (20.4%) through their first two games. This is a sizable spread for a Purdue team that has yet to find its rhythm, and I expect Illinois State’s perimeter shooting to keep this game competitive and allow the Redbirds to cover.
Illinois State vs Purdue prediction: Illinois State +15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
