I'm generally not a fan of laying big numbers in college basketball, but there are exceptions, and Seton Hall provides ample reason to make one here. The thing I like about the Pirates is that they are a defensive bunch capable of clipping just about anyone's wings. Case in point: Seton Hall held Saint Peter's to just 42 points in its season opener while cruising to a 24-point victory. Essentially, the defense created the separation -- and that's precisely what we're looking for against a comparable opponent in Long Island University. Both Saint Peter's and LIU rank outside the top 250 in KenPom's ratings, while the Sharks managed just 60 points in their road opener against Florida Atlantic while surrendering 74, themselves. That's not exactly an encouraging prospect heading into this assignment.
Speaking of metrics, here's where things get interesting. Seton Hall carries a +13.82 adjusted efficiency margin compared with LIU's -8.11, a difference of nearly 22 points per 100 possessions before accounting for home court. Factor in another three points for the Pirates and the numbers suggest a spread approaching 25 points, depending on the projected tempo. Yet we're laying just 17.5. Why? Well, Seton Hall plays slow, methodical, physical basketball. It's fundamentally sound but hardly entertaining, and not exactly the sort of style that inspires confidence when laying considerable lumber. That perception creates an opportunity. The Pirates don't need to run LIU out of the gym offensively when their defense is perfectly capable of doing the heavy lifting. I think Seton Hall will do just fine.
Long Island vs Seton Hall prediction: Seton Hall -17.5 (+102) available at time of publishing. Playable to -18.
