This mid-major showdown between Saint Joseph's and South Florida is at a neutral site -- the Veterans Classic in Annapolis. But not all tilts are created equal. The Hawks opened their season with consecutive victories over Longwood and Lafayette, while the Bulls suffered a narrow two-point defeat at DePaul after getting their campaign started with a 27-point demolition of Charleston Southern. St. Joe's defense held Lafayette to 57 points in its most recent outing at home, but doing so doesn't say particularly much since Lafayette is ranked 333rd in KenPom's rating with the 361st ranked offense in the land. This is a completely different animal, as South Florida presents a considerably more dangerous offensive challenge than anything Saint Joseph's has encountered thus far. USF is a team that is fresh off a March Madness appearance and no stranger to matchup spots like this one, either.
The Bulls have also already been tested on the road against DePaul, losing by a single basket. Saint Joseph's, meanwhile, hasn't faced that same level of competition. The Hawks haven't even set foot out of Philadelphia yet, and their first assignment comes in on a neutral floor. While that may seem dandy, this nevertheless a step-up in opposition for St. Joe's, while we cannot argue the same for USF. The neutral floor also removes any meaningful home-court advantage from the equation, leaving us to assess these teams on their actual merits rather than intangibles. The bottom line is that the Bulls are the better team and perhaps would look even scarier if they detoured from DePaul (who has also gotten off to a resounding start) and played another tune-up opponent instead. They did not, and that will pay dividends for South Florida.
Saint Joseph's vs South Florida prediction: South Florida -7.5 (-106) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
